A highly active stretch of weather is setting up across much of the United States, with repeated rounds of severe thunderstorms expected from the Plains into the Midwest before another stronger system may arrive over the weekend, according to meteorologist Max Schuster of the Max Velocity – Severe Weather Center.
Schuster said the pattern will combine damaging wind threats, isolated tornadoes, large hail and sharp temperature contrasts, with parts of the Great Lakes seeing another taste of fall while Texas and Oklahoma remain locked in intense late-summer heat.
The broader message is simple: the final week of August may feature one storm after another, and the active setup could continue into the opening days of September.
Tuesday Brings A Significant Severe Weather Threat
Schuster said Tuesday will likely be one of the more important severe-weather days of the week, with the central Plains and Upper Midwest both facing potentially dangerous thunderstorms.
Kansas and Nebraska appear to have the greatest risk for significant damaging winds, with gusts potentially reaching around 85 mph in the strongest storms.
Farther north, severe storms may stretch from Minnesota toward Wisconsin, with isolated damaging winds and some large hail.
Schuster said northeastern Minnesota could see supercells during the early and middle parts of the afternoon, and although tornadoes are not expected to be the main threat, enough wind shear will be present for an isolated tornado to develop.
The area from Eau Claire, Wisconsin, north toward Duluth and possibly International Falls will also need to be watched.
During the evening, Schuster said storms may fire in western Wisconsin, east of Minneapolis, and any supercell that can remain isolated could produce damaging winds, large hail and a low-end tornado threat.
That kind of setup is worth taking seriously because the biggest danger may not be one dramatic tornado outbreak, but several different clusters of severe storms developing in different regions over the course of the day.
Kansas And Nebraska Could See A Powerful Storm Complex
The central Plains may face a different kind of severe-weather problem.
Schuster said numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop across Nebraska and Kansas, including areas near Kearney, Salina and Hays.
A mesoscale convective system, or large organized line of thunderstorms, could form during the afternoon and evening.
If that happens, damaging straight-line winds would likely become the main concern.
Schuster said the tornado threat in this area appears relatively low, but an organized thunderstorm complex can still cause widespread damage over a large area, especially if winds begin reaching highway speeds.
The storms should gradually weaken later in the evening.
Wednesday Shifts The Risk Into The Great Lakes
The same storm system is then expected to move east on Wednesday, bringing another round of severe weather into the Midwest and Great Lakes.
Schuster said the low-pressure system will move toward Lake Huron while instability builds across a broad area from Kansas City into northern Michigan.
He highlighted the corridor from Chicago toward Peoria as one of the more favorable zones for stronger storms.
Damaging winds and isolated hail are expected to remain the primary hazards, but enough wind shear may again support a few tornadoes.
Schuster said the period from roughly 5 p.m. to 10 p.m. could be especially important, with possible storms stretching from Springfield, Illinois, toward Grand Rapids and perhaps Fort Wayne.
The storms may begin as individual supercells before gradually merging into a larger line and weakening into early Thursday.
That evolution is common in active severe-weather setups: isolated storms can pose the greater tornado threat early, then transition toward a broader damaging-wind risk once they merge.
The Storm Train May Continue Into The Weekend
The active pattern does not end with Wednesday.
Schuster said another system will move through the Northeast afterward, spreading showers and thunderstorms from around Atlanta north toward Quebec.
By Friday, another storm system is expected to develop across the Midwest and central Plains, bringing yet another round of isolated severe weather to areas including Wisconsin, Nebraska and Kansas.
Saturday may become more significant.
Schuster said multiple models have been hinting for several days that Saturday and Sunday could support stronger supercells with a broader range of hazards.
He noted that the Storm Prediction Center has also suggested that future outlooks may eventually need a slight-risk area from around Chicago south and west toward Kansas.
Sunday could then shift the greatest severe-weather focus toward the far northern Plains as another storm system forms near southern Saskatchewan.
By Monday, that same system may bring another round of storms into the Midwest.
That sequence is what makes Schuster’s “storm train” description fit. Instead of one isolated event, the pattern appears capable of producing several waves of storms, each moving through a different part of the country with only short breaks in between.
Cooler Air Returns North While The South Keeps Baking
Temperature differences will remain another major part of the story.
Schuster said another shot of cooler air will arrive in Minnesota and Wisconsin by Friday, with some overnight temperatures dropping back into the 40s and 50s.
At the same time, heat will continue building across the central and southern Plains.
Texas and Oklahoma are expected to remain very hot through much of the week, with temperatures staying in the 100s in some areas.
By Friday, the heat may begin expanding northward from Dallas toward Kansas, and over the weekend it could spread toward Kansas City and St. Louis.
That expanding warmth could also help fuel the weekend severe-weather setup by increasing instability ahead of incoming storm systems.
The contrast is notable because the country will effectively be experiencing two very different seasons at once: a hint of fall across parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, and persistent midsummer heat farther south.
Schuster also said the first week of September could bring additional cold shots into the Northeast and Midwest, with potentially much cooler air reaching the Pacific Northwest as well.
He even noted that the GFS model has hinted at possible snow in the Rockies during the opening week of September, though he stressed that confidence is still low that far out.
Atlantic Tropics Are Becoming More Active
Schuster also turned his attention to the Atlantic, where two areas are being monitored for possible tropical development.
One system east of Bermuda has about a 50% chance of formation and could potentially bring rough surf or rip-current concerns to New England before moving toward Nova Scotia.
He said that system is not expected to pose a major threat to the United States.
The more important disturbance is farther south in the Atlantic’s main development region.
Schuster said it also carries around a 50% development chance, but he believes it has a better opportunity to strengthen because it may encounter a more favorable window of weaker wind shear.
Some hurricane models suggest the disturbance could become a tropical storm as early as Wednesday and perhaps strengthen into a hurricane later in the week.
At this point, however, most model guidance keeps the system away from the Lesser Antilles and farther out over the open Atlantic.
A large high-pressure system may eventually help pull the disturbance north before it can move into the Caribbean.
Schuster said some ensemble members bring it closer to Bermuda during the first week of September, but the general model trend continues to keep it well offshore.
That is encouraging for now, but the system has not formed yet, so track and intensity forecasts remain uncertain.
September May Start Just As Active
Schuster said the weather pattern may remain highly unsettled even as August ends.
Long-range models continue to suggest repeated storm systems, additional severe-weather opportunities and more sharp swings in temperature.
The tropics may also become much more active over the next week or two if the Atlantic disturbance successfully develops.
Taken together, the forecast shows an unusually busy transition into September.
The most immediate concerns are Tuesday’s damaging-wind threat in Kansas and Nebraska, supercells in the Upper Midwest, Wednesday’s severe-weather risk around the Great Lakes, and the possibility that an even more energetic pattern develops over the weekend.
Schuster’s forecast suggests there may be little time for the atmosphere to settle before the next system arrives, and that is what makes the coming stretch stand out.
The country is not looking at one storm.
It is looking at a sequence of them.
Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.
