El Niño is expected to become a much stronger force in the nation’s weather during the final three months of 2026, bringing a wetter pattern across much of the southern United States, worsening drought concerns farther north and potentially shifting the late-year severe weather threat toward Florida.
Meteorologist Jonathan Kegges, host of the JustWeather YouTube channel, said the developing pattern should become increasingly noticeable through October, November and December as a strengthening El Niño begins reshaping temperature, rainfall, severe weather and even the final stretch of Atlantic hurricane season.
“This is where it is going to start to transition and basically take over the weather pattern across the United States,” Kegges said.
Northern States Could Run Warmer Than Normal
Kegges said the northern tier of the country has the strongest signal for above-normal temperatures during the next three months.
Parts of the Plains have a more uncertain temperature outlook, with some opportunity for cooler conditions as the intense summer heat finally loosens its grip.
Eastern Alaska also stands out for a high chance of running warmer than normal, according to Kegges, while Hawaii is expected to remain on the warmer side as fall progresses.
The bigger change, however, may come from precipitation.
Kegges expects the strengthening El Niño pattern to increasingly favor above-normal rainfall from Southern California through the southern Plains and into the Southeast, with Florida particularly favored for wetter conditions.
That would be a significant change for areas that have spent long stretches dealing with heat and dryness.
El Niño Could Send More Rain Across The South
Kegges said one of the strongest features of the coming pattern should be a more active subtropical jet carrying Pacific moisture across the southern United States.
That could lead to more frequent storm systems and increasing rainfall across the southern tier as fall moves closer to winter.
Southern California, parts of the southern Plains, the Gulf Coast and Florida are among the areas he expects to have better chances of above-normal precipitation.
Farther north, the pattern could be very different.
Kegges said areas east of the Cascades, parts of the interior West, Michigan and portions of upstate New York could lean drier than normal.
He is also watching western Montana, Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan for the possibility that drought either develops or becomes worse during the next three months.
That split is one of the most important parts of the outlook because El Niño does not simply make the entire country wetter or cooler. Instead, it can rearrange where the most active storm track sets up.
Florida Could Face A Bigger Severe Weather Threat
Kegges also expects the severe weather map to change as fall progresses.
During the earlier part of the season, he said cold fronts moving across the Plains, Great Lakes and parts of the Southeast can still produce episodes of severe thunderstorms.
But by November and especially December, Florida becomes a more important area to watch.
“El Niño loves to pick on Florida when it comes to severe weather and the threat for tornadoes,” Kegges said.
That does not mean Florida will see constant tornadoes, but it does mean the atmospheric setup can become more favorable for organized storms as stronger cold fronts interact with warm, moisture-rich air farther south.
Kegges said the warm surrounding waters are another important ingredient because they can provide instability even later in the year.
That makes the second half of fall and the beginning of winter a period he believes deserves closer attention.
Drought Could Improve In One Region And Worsen In Another
Kegges said the expected increase in southern rainfall should gradually improve drought conditions across parts of the southern United States.
He pointed to the subtropical jet as the main reason, with Pacific moisture likely becoming more persistent as El Niño strengthens.
At the same time, he expects some northern areas to move in the opposite direction.
Western Montana is one region he is watching for possible drought development, while parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin and Michigan could also become drier.
That contrast could become increasingly visible by the time Kegges releases a more detailed winter outlook later in October.
It is a useful reminder that seasonal forecasts are often about shifting probabilities rather than one simple national pattern.
One part of the country can become wetter while another simultaneously slips deeper into drought.
Late Hurricane Season Still Bears Watching
Kegges also examined what the strengthening El Niño could mean for the remainder of Atlantic hurricane season.
The Atlantic Basin remains unusually warm in several areas, including the Gulf of Mexico and the Southwest Atlantic.
Kegges said water temperatures in some places near the Gulf were running roughly 5 to 7 degrees Fahrenheit above normal.
Warm water alone, however, is not enough.
The biggest limiting factor continues to be wind shear associated with El Niño.
Kegges said shear across the Atlantic has remained very strong and is expected to stay elevated, making it difficult for tropical systems to organize and survive.
That is why he does not expect a large number of additional named storms.
Early October May Offer A Small Tropical Window
The one period Kegges is watching more carefully is around the end of September and the first part of October.
He said the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO, is forecast to move into phases that can become more favorable for rising air and tropical development across the Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean.
That could create a brief window where thunderstorms become more widespread and the atmosphere is somewhat more supportive of tropical organization.
Even then, Kegges said strong El Niño-driven wind shear could quickly tear apart anything that tries to form.
“Anything that were to try to come on the Western Caribbean side of things, good luck,” he said.
The more concerning setup would involve a localized pocket where shear temporarily relaxes, especially if a cold front or dip in the jet stream helps create additional lift.
Kegges said the first week of October is one period he would watch for that kind of scenario.
Still, he repeatedly stressed that the overall environment remains hostile enough that widespread tropical development is not expected.
The Bigger Story May Be Tropical Moisture, Not Hurricanes
By later October and into November, Kegges believes the more likely story is not a major hurricane outbreak but a persistent flow of tropical moisture into the Southeast.
He described the possibility of a “fire hose” of moisture moving from the western Gulf toward the northern Gulf Coast and Florida.
That could reinforce the wetter pattern already expected from El Niño.
In other words, tropical moisture may still play an important role even if fully developed tropical cyclones remain limited.
That distinction matters because heavy rain does not require a hurricane.
A persistent stream of deep moisture aimed at the same region can still produce flooding problems and repeated rounds of wet weather.
El Niño Is Expected To Become The Dominant Pattern
Kegges said the central theme of the next three months is the growing influence of a strong El Niño.
The northern tier should generally lean warmer, while the southern United States becomes wetter and more active.
Florida may become increasingly vulnerable to late-fall severe weather, including tornadoes, while parts of the northern Plains and Upper Midwest could see drought concerns increase.
At the same time, the Atlantic hurricane season is expected to remain restrained by strong wind shear, despite very warm water and a brief period of potentially more favorable tropical conditions near the start of October.
The pattern will not affect every region the same way, and Kegges made clear that details will change as fall unfolds.
But the broader direction, in his view, is becoming easier to see.
El Niño is strengthening, the subtropical jet is expected to become more important, and by the heart of fall, much of the country’s weather may start reflecting that takeover.
Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.
