Meteorologist Jonathan Kegges is pushing back against social-media claims of an imminent Gulf hurricane later this month, saying the storm being shared online is likely a “phantom” produced by one long-range model rather than a credible forecast signal.
Kegges, host of the JustWeather YouTube channel, said the more important weather story is a major pattern change unfolding across the Lower 48, where a stronger jet-stream setup should bring severe weather back to the nation’s heartland while also sending cooler air into parts of the West, Midwest and East.
He is not dismissing the Atlantic entirely. Kegges said conditions may become somewhat more favorable for tropical development toward late September or early October, but that is very different from claiming a specific hurricane is already on the way.
Kegges Calls The Gulf Hurricane A “Phantom Storm”
Kegges said the hurricane image circulating online comes largely from the GFS forecast model, which he believes is the first warning sign.
He argued that the GFS has a known tendency to create tropical systems in the western Caribbean or southern Gulf that never actually form.
The second problem, according to Kegges, is that other major models have not joined in.
“If other models were coming online, it would obviously give some kind of street cred to the GFS,” he said.
Instead, the potential storm has largely remained a one-model idea.
His third reason was the forecast timeline itself.
Kegges said earlier model runs had placed the supposed storm in the western Gulf around September 18 or 19, then shifted it toward Florida around September 21, before pushing it back again toward September 23.
When a long-range storm keeps moving farther away in time rather than steadily becoming clearer as the date approaches, he said that is often a sign the model does not actually have a handle on a real system.
That is an important distinction because one dramatic model frame can look convincing when shared by itself, even if the larger forecast picture shows very little support.
Ensemble Guidance Shows Little Support
Kegges said people who want to evaluate these forecasts for themselves should look beyond a single operational model run and check the ensembles.
Those ensembles run many slightly different versions of a forecast to see whether a meaningful number of them arrive at a similar outcome.
In this case, Kegges said they largely do not.
He pointed to European ensemble guidance extending through late September and said only a few members showed anything worth watching.
He also highlighted the Google DeepMind ensemble, which he described as one of the strongest-performing newer forecast systems.
According to Kegges, none of its 50 members supported the western Caribbean storm being promoted online during roughly the September 22-24 period.
That does not prove the Atlantic will remain quiet forever, but it makes the specific hurricane scenario much harder to defend.
Kegges was blunt about it, calling the storm talk around September 20-22 “straight clickbait and hype.”
A Better Tropical Window May Open Later
While dismissing the immediate hurricane hype, Kegges said he does see signs that the larger tropical environment could become more favorable toward the end of September and beginning of October.
His reasoning centers partly on the Madden-Julian Oscillation, or MJO, a broad tropical pattern that can encourage rising air, clouds and thunderstorms in different parts of the globe depending on its phase.
Kegges said El Niño has helped keep the most favorable rising motion focused over the Pacific, but the pattern may eventually shift into phases that are more supportive of Atlantic development.
By around October 2, he said forecast guidance begins showing more rising motion over the western Caribbean and Gulf.
That would open a better window for tropical formation.
The problem for any storm is that strong wind shear still remains across much of the western Caribbean and southwestern Atlantic.
Kegges said tropical waves off Africa have repeatedly struggled in that hostile environment this season, and a strong front later this month could quickly disrupt anything trying to develop.
So the message is not “nothing can form.”
It is that the credible development window comes later and still contains major obstacles, while the specific hurricane being promoted for the third week of September has little support.
Severe Weather Returns To The Nation’s Heartland
Away from the tropics, Kegges said the next seven days should become much more active across the central United States.
He expects the main severe-weather corridor to stretch from the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest southward toward Iowa and Missouri.
A large, potent upper-level low will move into the Pacific Northwest and then influence the central part of the country.
Kegges described it as a large dip in the jet stream, with enough energy to help trigger stronger thunderstorms across the Plains and Midwest.
Rainfall should also increase in those areas, while Florida continues to see frequent sea-breeze thunderstorms.
The Four Corners region remains active under the monsoon pattern, and the Pacific Northwest should also turn wetter.
Some of that moisture eventually reaches the Northeast as the broader pattern shifts east.
The central severe-weather threat is arguably more important in the short term than the viral hurricane maps because it is tied to a much stronger and more immediate forecast signal.
Cooler Air Moves In For Some, But Not The Deep South
The same system driving severe weather will also pull much cooler air into parts of the country.
Kegges said places such as Boise, Eugene, Seattle and Great Falls could see highs only in the 60s by Monday, September 14, with temperatures well below normal.
Rapid City should also cool into the 70s.
By Tuesday, the cooler air pushes farther southeast.
Minneapolis could remain in the 60s, while New York reaches the mid-70s and Boston stays around 70 under another dip in the jet stream over the East.
The Deep South is a different story.
Kegges said a strong dome of high pressure will keep temperatures unusually hot across the region, with San Antonio potentially challenging record highs.
He stressed that the incoming front is not the major seasonal transition many people are waiting for.
It will provide meaningful relief for parts of the northern tier, but hotter air remains entrenched farther south.
A stronger push of cooler air may not arrive until around September 20-21 or perhaps even later.
Kegges Says The Science Matters More Than The Viral Map
The overall forecast is less dramatic than the viral hurricane scenario, but it is also more useful.
Kegges sees no strong evidence for the specific Gulf hurricane being widely shared online, while the severe-weather pattern over the central United States is supported by a much clearer atmospheric setup.
He also sees a legitimate reason to watch the tropics more closely later in the month, particularly if the MJO becomes more favorable and wind shear finally relaxes.
Those are two very different ideas, and mixing them together can make a weak long-range signal look far more certain than it is.
Kegges’ broader message was that people should pay attention to model agreement, ensembles and whether a forecast becomes more consistent over time rather than reacting to one dramatic image.
For now, the more immediate concern is on land: a stronger jet stream, renewed severe weather across the Plains and Midwest, and a sharp temperature divide that sends cooler air into the northern states while the Deep South keeps baking.
Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.
