A large storm system is taking shape across the central United States, and meteorologist Max Schuster says it could bring a volatile mix of severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, flooding and a noticeable push of cooler air as the new week gets underway.
Schuster, host of the Max Velocity – Severe Weather Center YouTube channel, said a powerful cold front will sweep across part of the country while strong winds higher in the atmosphere help organize thunderstorms from the Great Plains into the Midwest. At the same time, deep moisture moving northward from the Southwest could keep heavy rain and flooding concerns alive through the middle of the week.
“A massive cold front is about to sweep across the United States,” Schuster said, adding that it will help bring “even more severe weather, heavy downpours, and cooler weather.”
The overall pattern is unusually busy for mid-September, especially because the severe-weather setup may produce not only damaging wind and large hail, but also a threat for stronger tornadoes in parts of the Plains and Midwest.
Severe Storms Target Nebraska, Iowa and Nearby States
The most immediate concern begins Monday afternoon and evening, when Schuster expects a strengthening storm system to move across parts of Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota and Wisconsin.
According to Schuster, very strong low-level winds will develop with the system, increasing wind shear and creating an environment that could support rotating supercells. He said the setup may allow a few storms to become discrete rather than immediately forming one large line, which can be important when assessing tornado potential.
The Storm Prediction Center, as shown in his forecast, had a Level 2 out of 5 slight risk stretching from around Omaha toward Des Moines, with damaging winds and very large hail among the primary threats. Schuster also highlighted a significant tornado area, saying EF2 or stronger tornadoes could be possible.
That part of the forecast stands out because September is not usually the time of year when people expect a notable tornado setup across the northern Plains. The atmosphere does not follow the calendar perfectly, of course, but seeing this kind of combination of wind shear and instability so late in the warm season makes the situation more unusual.
Schuster said the key period for storm development will likely come from the late afternoon into the evening, especially near the Nebraska-Iowa border. If earlier clouds and storms clear enough to allow instability to build, supercells could begin forming between roughly 4 p.m. and 8 p.m. Central Time.
He pointed to areas near Omaha as a likely zone for storm initiation, with communities farther south and east also at risk as storms mature. Any isolated supercell that remains separated from neighboring storms could produce a stronger tornado, while damaging wind gusts near 70 mph and hail as large as golf balls will also be possible.
As the evening continues, Schuster expects thunderstorms to become more numerous and eventually merge into larger clusters. Once that happens, damaging winds around 60 mph may become the more widespread hazard, although an isolated tornado could remain possible.
Wisconsin Faces a Stormy Start to the Week
The severe-weather threat will not remain limited to Nebraska and Iowa.
Schuster said central and southern Wisconsin could see widespread showers and thunderstorms from Monday night into early Tuesday, with several hazards possible. He believes damaging winds will probably be the main concern there, although hail and isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
By Tuesday, the broader storm system will begin weakening, but Schuster does not expect the severe-weather risk to disappear completely.
Instead, another corridor of isolated severe storms may develop from Kansas into southern Michigan during the late afternoon and evening. He said Illinois and Indiana appear to have the best chance for stronger storms, particularly around Peoria, Springfield, Indianapolis and Fort Wayne.
Schuster emphasized that Tuesday’s tornado threat does not look nearly as significant as Monday’s because wind shear will be weaker and the larger storm system will be less organized. Even so, he said a few supercells could still form, bringing the possibility of an isolated tornado or two.
That distinction is useful because not every severe-weather day carries the same type of danger. Monday’s setup appears to have stronger support for organized rotating storms, while Tuesday looks more dependent on smaller-scale conditions that may only affect scattered locations.
Heavy Rain Raises Flooding Concerns
While severe thunderstorms may draw much of the attention early in the week, Schuster said flooding could become a growing concern farther west and across portions of the Midwest as moisture continues spreading north.
Monsoonal moisture from the Desert Southwest is expected to surge toward the central part of the country, producing repeated rounds of rain through Wednesday. Schuster said that moisture could stretch from the Southwest all the way into the upper Mississippi Valley.
By Wednesday and Thursday, he expects heavy rainfall to continue across the Desert Southwest while some of that moisture moves into the Midwest, where showers, thunderstorms and localized flooding could persist.
A weak high-pressure system positioned near Chicago may help keep moisture trapped over roughly the same region for an extended period. Schuster said this could create a more legitimate flooding threat during the middle of the week rather than just a few brief downpours.
He identified a broad zone from southern Nebraska toward New York as an area to watch, including cities such as Chicago and Detroit.
Persistent rain can sometimes become more disruptive than one dramatic thunderstorm, especially when storms repeatedly cross the same areas. Even places that escape the strongest winds or hail could still end up dealing with water problems if rainfall continues for several days.
More Cold Fronts Bring Early Fall Relief
Beyond the storms, one of the bigger changes in the forecast will be a series of cold fronts moving across the northern half of the country.
Schuster said another front will sweep from Kansas through Michigan by Tuesday and Wednesday, bringing cooler overnight temperatures to parts of the central United States. Areas north of Kansas City could fall into the 50s by Wednesday morning, while downtown Kansas City may remain somewhat warmer in the mid to upper 60s.
Chicago is expected to sit near the edge of that cooler air, while farther north, parts of Wisconsin and Minnesota could see temperatures falling into the 40s and 50s. Some northern locations may even approach the upper 30s.
Schuster also said another, weaker cold front should move through the Midwest toward Friday and Saturday, helping keep nighttime temperatures in the 40s and 50s across much of the region heading into next weekend.
This pattern is one of the clearer signs that the seasonal transition is beginning. The warmth is not disappearing everywhere, but the repeated arrival of fronts across the northern tier is gradually replacing summer-like stretches with more typical early fall conditions.
The southern Plains, however, will remain much hotter.
Schuster expects heat to build back into the Mississippi River Valley and southern Plains by Thursday, with Dallas potentially approaching 100 degrees. He said places such as Texas, Atlanta and Miami are unlikely to see many strong cold fronts over the next two or three weeks, although he expects that to change as October approaches.
Severe Weather Could Return Late in the Week
The unsettled pattern may continue beyond the first round of storms.
Schuster said the Midwest will need to be watched again Friday and Saturday for another possible uptick in severe weather, although the exact threat will depend heavily on how much moisture remains in place and whether another low-pressure system develops.
If a stronger low does form, he said it could support another more significant severe-weather episode. Otherwise, the pattern may produce mainly periods of rain with isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms.
Forecast confidence decreases heading into next weekend and the following week, but Schuster said one part of the pattern appears more dependable: additional cold fronts should keep moving across the northern United States.
Cities including Chicago, Minneapolis and New York could all feel the effects of those repeated pushes of cooler air.
Tropics Remain Surprisingly Quiet
Away from the continental weather pattern, Schuster also noted an unusual lack of hurricane activity in the Atlantic.
He said the basin had not produced a hurricane through September 13, something he described as the first occurrence of its kind since 1941. Schuster called that statistic “mindboggling” and pointed to strong wind shear as a major reason tropical systems have struggled to organize.
A newly identified area in the Atlantic had a 20% chance of development over the following seven days, according to the forecast Schuster discussed, although he remained skeptical that the basin would suddenly become highly active.
He also pointed to activity in the Pacific, including a tropical system moving generally in the direction of Hawaii that he expected to weaken significantly before arriving. Another area west of Mexico had a much higher chance of development, around 90% over seven days.
For much of the United States, however, the larger story this week remains the combination of severe storms, repeated heavy rain and cooler air moving south behind several fronts.
Schuster’s forecast suggests the pattern will not change all at once. Instead, the country may move through several rounds of active weather, with one region dealing with tornadoes and hail while another gets flooding rain, and others finally begin feeling the first more convincing hints of fall.
Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.
