Meteorologist Ryan Hall is warning coastal residents not to get too comfortable with the idea of a quiet 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, even as official forecasts point toward fewer storms than usual.
In a new forecast on the Ryan Hall, Y’all YouTube channel, Hall said many people online are treating El Niño like a shield that will simply block the season from becoming dangerous. His concern is that this thinking may cause people to relax too much, especially along the Gulf Coast, where extremely warm water could still fuel a serious storm if one manages to survive the hostile upper-level winds.
Hall said the Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through November 30, and a normal modern season averages about 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.
For 2026, he said the official NOAA outlook calls for 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes, and 1 to 3 major hurricanes, with a 55 percent chance of a below-normal season. He also cited Colorado State hurricane experts, who are calling for 13 named storms, six hurricanes, two major hurricanes, and overall storm energy running at about 73 percent of an average year.
On paper, that sounds like good news. Hall’s point is that “below average” describes the whole ocean, not what happens if one dangerous storm finds one vulnerable coast.
El Niño May Suppress Storms, But Not Erase Them
Hall said the main reason forecasters expect a quieter season is El Niño, the warm phase of a recurring Pacific Ocean pattern that can shift weather around the world.
According to Hall, conditions are currently neutral, but the Climate Prediction Center has issued an El Niño watch, giving it an 82 percent chance of developing by midsummer and a 96 percent chance of lasting through next winter.
The reason El Niño matters for hurricanes is wind shear.
Hall explained that hurricanes need thunderstorms to stack vertically, almost like a tall chimney, so warm, moist air can rise, wrap around the center, and help the storm stay organized. In El Niño years, stronger winds often blow across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic high in the atmosphere, cutting across the tops of storms and making it harder for them to strengthen.
Hall compared that shear to a lawnmower blade moving through the sky, slicing the top off thunderstorms before they can fully build.
That is why many forecasters expect fewer storms this year, and Hall said he agrees with that overall idea. The issue, he stressed, is that shear suppresses storms but does not make them impossible.
“Shear suppresses storms, but it does not erase them,” Hall said.
That is the key distinction in this forecast. A quieter season can still contain a storm that matters deeply to the people in its path, and that is where seasonal averages can become misleading for families making real preparedness decisions.
A Near-Record Warm Gulf Changes The Risk
Hall said the atmosphere may be working against storms this year, but the ocean is sending a different signal.
He explained that hurricanes need warm water, generally around 80 degrees or warmer, but surface temperature is only part of the story. The deeper question is how far down that warmth goes, which meteorologists describe as ocean heat content.
Hall compared the ocean to a bathtub. If the warm water is only a thin layer at the surface, a hurricane can churn up cooler water from below and weaken its own fuel supply; but if the warm water extends hundreds of feet down, a storm can keep pulling energy from the ocean even as it churns.
For 2026, Hall said the Gulf and western Atlantic are running unusually warm, with the Gulf sitting near record ocean heat content as of spring.
He said the Gulf has been warming quickly for decades and is now warming near the surface at nearly twice the rate of the global ocean, while parts of the central and eastern Atlantic are running a little cooler than normal.
That leaves what Hall called a “deep bathtub of fuel” near the coastline.
If a storm survives the wind shear and reaches the Gulf, Hall said, it could intensify quickly because the warm water is already in place.
That is why this season feels more complicated than a simple below-average forecast. The number of storms may be lower, but the environment near land could still support rapid strengthening if the right storm finds the right patch of ocean.
The “Super El Niño” Claim May Be Overstated
Hall also pushed back against online claims that a “Super El Niño” is guaranteed to shut down the hurricane season.
He said there is good reason to expect El Niño, but far less certainty about how strong it will become. According to Hall, the Climate Prediction Center shows uncertainty in the peak strength, with no single category – weak, moderate, strong, or very strong – having more than a 37 percent chance.
He also said “Super El Niño” is not an official forecast term, calling it more of an internet label.
When someone says a Super El Niño is definitely coming and will shut everything down, Hall said that is not based on actual science.
His bigger concern is historical. Even very strong El Niño years have not made the Atlantic go completely quiet.
Hall pointed to 1982, when the season produced about five named storms, two hurricanes, and one major hurricane. He also mentioned 1997, another major El Niño year, when the Atlantic saw seven named storms, three hurricanes, and one major.
In 2015, when people called the Pacific pattern the “Godzilla El Niño,” the Atlantic season was still below average, but it produced 11 named storms, four hurricanes, and two major hurricanes.
That same year also produced Hurricane Joaquin, which Hall described as a Category 4 storm whose moisture became part of a catastrophic flooding event in the Carolinas.
Hall was careful to say the flooding was mostly caused by a stalled front, not Joaquin alone, but his larger point was clear: a below-average season during a powerful El Niño can still produce a tropical-related disaster.
Lower Odds Do Not Mean No Risk
Hall said coastal residents should understand that lower odds do not mean impossible outcomes.
He cited Colorado State’s forecast giving the entire U.S. coastline a 32 percent chance of at least one major hurricane landfall this year, down from an average of about 43 percent.
For the Gulf Coast, Hall said the chance of a major hurricane landfall is about 20 percent, down from the usual 27 percent. For the East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula, he said the chance is about 15 percent, compared with an average of 21 percent.
The Caribbean, according to Hall, has about a 35 percent chance of a major hurricane tracking through, down from the usual 47 percent.
Those numbers are lower, but they are not close to zero.
Hall also explained that steering patterns will matter, especially the Bermuda High, a large semi-permanent area of high pressure over the Atlantic. When that high extends farther west and becomes stronger, it can push storms toward land; when it is weaker or farther east, storms may find a path out to sea.
That is one of the harder parts of hurricane forecasting for the public to understand. A seasonal outlook can tell people the basin may be quieter, but landfall risk often depends on the track of one storm and the exact position of steering patterns at the time.
The season’s story may not be written by how many storms form, but by where one of them goes.
Why “Below Average” Can Mislead People
Hall said the truth about the 2026 season is that El Niño is “loading the dice” toward fewer storms, but the Gulf is sitting on a near-record reservoir of fuel.
That could mean the season trades quantity for quality: fewer storms overall, but serious problems from any storm that survives the shear and reaches the warmest water.
Hall said he has seen people talk about skipping hurricane preparedness because of the below-average outlook, and he called that the wrong way to think about the season.
“The better thing to do is to not be scared, but rather be prepared,” Hall said.
His advice was practical. Hall urged people to know their evacuation zone, make sure they have more than one way to receive warnings, review insurance before a storm is nearby, and prepare a basic supply kit with plans for pets, medications, and family communication if the power goes out.
That kind of preparation is not dramatic, but it is useful. It also fits the reality of a season where the odds may be lower, yet the consequences could still be serious for anyone who ends up in the path of the wrong storm.
A Quiet Season Can Still Produce A Major Problem
Hall’s forecast does not argue that 2026 will be an above-average hurricane season. In fact, he said the science points toward fewer storms because El Niño should create stronger wind shear across the tropical Atlantic.
His warning is more specific than that: fewer storms does not mean no storms, and a below-normal season does not protect every coastline.
That message is especially important for the Gulf Coast, where Hall said near-record ocean heat content could allow a surviving storm to intensify quickly. It also matters for the East Coast and Caribbean, where steering patterns such as the Bermuda High will help decide whether storms curve away or move toward land.
The practical takeaway from Hall’s forecast is that people should not treat seasonal averages like personal protection. A below-average year can still produce a major hurricane, a damaging flood event, or one storm that changes everything for a single stretch of coast.
Hall’s advice was not to panic, but to prepare before peak season arrives, while there is still time to make decisions calmly rather than under pressure from a storm already approaching.
Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.
