Meteorologist Mark Gremillion says early long-range weather data is pointing toward a potentially cold, stormy, and disruptive winter pattern for 2026–2027, with the strongest signal focused on the southern and eastern United States.
In a new forecast on Weatherman Plus, Gremillion said the developing pattern could bring a stronger subtropical jet, more Gulf storm systems, more East Coast storm chances, and a higher risk of snow and ice if colder air overlaps with the expected storm track.
Gremillion framed the setup as unusually strong for this far ahead of winter, saying the data suggests a winter pattern that could become “very cold and very snowy” in parts of the country if the ingredients come together.
“We have a huge signal of some southern storms that’s going to come through, maybe bringing a lot of snow and ice with it,” Gremillion said.
A Strong El Niño Signal Drives The Forecast
Gremillion’s winter outlook centers on what he described as a strong El Niño pattern developing for the coming cold season.
He said a strong El Niño often supports above-average temperatures across the northern side of the Lower 48 while encouraging below-average temperatures farther south, largely because of a more active subtropical jet stream.
That subtropical jet is the key feature in his forecast. Gremillion said it can pull moisture across the southern United States, help storms form along the Gulf Coast, and send systems up the East Coast where nor’easters can develop.
When those storms meet enough cold air, he said, the result can be snow, ice, and mixed precipitation across areas that do not always handle winter weather well.
That is why the southern signal stood out to him. A cold winter in the northern tier is not unusual, but a stormy pattern that repeatedly reaches into the South can create bigger travel and infrastructure problems because even small amounts of ice can cause major disruption.
The Pattern Before Winter Still Matters
Before focusing fully on winter, Gremillion said the country first has to get through a stubborn summer heat pattern.
He pointed to the Pacific North American pattern, or PNA, saying a negative to neutral phase supports a large heat dome across the central United States. He said that heat dome will shift back and forth between the central U.S. and the West through July and into August.
At times, Gremillion said cooler troughs will dip across the Great Lakes and Northeast, giving those regions breaks from the heat. But he expects much of the rest of the country to remain in a hot summer setup, especially the central, southern, and western states.
“Make sure you strap in for this heat dome because it’s going to stick around for weeks,” Gremillion said.
He also said the Arctic Oscillation may help bring more cooler air into the Great Lakes and Northeast later in July and possibly again in August, while the heat continues to dominate elsewhere.
This part of the forecast matters because long-range seasonal patterns often evolve gradually. Gremillion is not only looking at winter maps in isolation; he is watching how ridges, troughs, and pressure patterns shift through late summer and fall.
Stormier Signals Build Through Fall
According to Gremillion, the Climate Forecast System is showing below-average temperatures beginning to appear in parts of the north-central U.S., Great Lakes, and Northeast during August before the pattern changes again.
By September and October, he said the cooler anomaly begins shifting more toward the southern, eastern, and northeastern United States. That change, in his view, points toward a stormier pattern as the subtropical jet becomes more active.
Gremillion said October and November could bring below-average temperatures into the South, which would be notable because those months often still carry strong heat in many southern states.
From there, he said the setup becomes more concerning as winter approaches. By November and December, the long-range data suggests colder anomalies strengthening while low-pressure systems become more frequent across the southern storm track.
“If it gets a hold of the precipitation, it’s going to mean a lot of snow and a lot of ice,” Gremillion said.
That “if” is important. Cold alone does not create winter storms, and moisture alone only creates rain. The damaging winter setups happen when both arrive in the same place at the same time.
December Through February Looks Most Active
Gremillion said the signal grows stronger from December into January and February.
He described a pattern with below-average temperatures and repeated low-pressure systems stretching from the Southwest across the southern United States and toward the East Coast. In his view, that could support Gulf storms, southern winter storms, and nor’easters depending on the exact storm track.
For the northern tier of the country, Gremillion said snow potential remains in play from the northern Rockies and Plains through the Great Lakes and into the Northeast.
Across the central United States, he said mixed precipitation and ice could become a larger concern. Along the Gulf Coast and Deep South, he said storms may be more frequent, and if the trough digs deeply enough, some of those storms could interact with cold air farther south.
The biggest question is how far south the cold air can reach and how often it overlaps with storm systems. That is the difference between a rainy southern winter and one that brings repeated ice or snow threats.
Gremillion also said February into March may shift more of the storm focus toward the East Coast, increasing the chance for later-season nor’easters.
The South Could Face A Difficult Setup
Gremillion, who said he was born and raised in New Orleans, paid special attention to the South.
He said the pattern could be “potentially very bad” for southern states if strong storms form along the Gulf and collide with below-average temperatures. He also said the data supports a broad area of low pressure from the Gulf and Southeast into the East, which could keep the region active.
For the South, winter hazards often depend less on total snow and more on ice, timing, and preparedness. A northern city may be built around snow removal, but a thin glaze of ice in the Deep South can shut down roads, knock out power, and create dangerous travel conditions.
That makes Gremillion’s forecast worth watching, even though it remains months away and will likely change many times before winter arrives.
The responsible takeaway is not to panic in July about exact snowfall totals. It is to recognize that early seasonal signals are pointing toward a more active southern storm track, and that residents in vulnerable areas may want to pay closer attention as fall forecasts become clearer.
Heat Risk Remains The Immediate Concern
While the winter outlook carried the headline, Gremillion also warned that the near-term heat dome remains a major hazard.
He said the latest data shows a high risk of dangerous heat expanding northward, with major and extreme impacts possible in different regions as the ridge shifts. He described heat indices in the 100 to 110 degree range across parts of the Southeast and values up to 110 to 115 in some areas.
Gremillion also said parts of the West could see temperatures near 110 and even 120 in the hottest locations, while dangerous heat spreads toward the northern Rockies, Dakotas, and Minnesota as the pattern shifts.
He warned that the most serious heat risks include long-duration heat and little overnight relief, which can make conditions more dangerous over several days.
That part of the forecast is immediate and practical. People can debate winter signals later, but extreme heat is already a public-safety issue when it lasts for days and limits the body’s ability to recover at night.
A Long-Range Forecast With Big Questions
Gremillion repeatedly described the winter signal as strong, but long-range winter forecasts always carry uncertainty.
Seasonal models can identify broad patterns, but they cannot reliably predict every storm, every cold outbreak, or the exact placement of snow and ice months in advance. A small shift in the jet stream can move a winter storm hundreds of miles, changing snow to rain or ice to cold drizzle.
Still, Gremillion said the consistency between major long-range guidance, including the Climate Forecast System and the European model, made the signal stand out to him.
He said both show a stronger low-pressure pattern developing across the southern United States from late fall into winter, along with colder temperature anomalies that could support wintry weather.
“This is not just a one-off,” Gremillion said. “It is trending.”
That trend is the main point of his forecast. He is not saying every southern city will see a historic snowstorm, but he is saying the ingredients that support southern winter storms may be more available than usual.
The Main Message: Watch The Pattern
Gremillion’s forecast points to two different weather stories unfolding over the next several months.
First, the country faces a stubborn summer heat pattern, with dangerous heat expected to build and shift across the central, southern, and western United States. Second, the developing winter pattern may bring a more active southern storm track, stronger Gulf systems, and a higher chance for snow and ice if cold air is in place.
For winter 2026–2027, Gremillion said December, January, and February appear to be the months to watch most closely, with February into March possibly favoring more East Coast storm development.
The forecast is still early, and the details will change. But Gremillion’s warning is that the signal is strong enough now to start paying attention.
If his forecast verifies, the coming winter may not be remembered only for cold air in the usual northern places. It could be remembered for how often southern moisture, low-pressure systems, and cold air try to meet across parts of the country that are not always ready for snow and ice.
Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.
