Meteorologist Ryan Hall says this winter’s first measurable snowfall could arrive later than usual across a broad stretch of the eastern United States, while parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains may see snow a little earlier than normal as a very strong El Niño continues to reshape the pattern.
Hall, host of the Ryan Hall, Y’all YouTube channel, built his forecast from 30 years of snowfall records at nearly 2,000 weather stations and then adjusted those normal dates using current temperature outlooks and the behavior of nine major El Niño winters.
His conclusion is not that every city will follow the same pattern, but that a strong El Niño could delay the first snow in some of the country’s most populated areas while nudging it earlier in a smaller zone farther southwest.
Hall Starts With What Usually Happens
Before getting into this winter’s forecast, Hall first laid out when different parts of the country normally see their first measurable snowfall, defining measurable snow as at least one-tenth of an inch on the ground.
He said places along the Gulf Coast and in the desert Southwest, including Phoenix, Houston and New Orleans, do not receive measurable snow often enough to assign a reliable date because it happens in fewer than one out of every five winters.
Dallas, Atlanta and Birmingham are somewhat more likely to see it, but even there Hall said measurable snow only happens in roughly half to two-thirds of winters, which makes January or February a better general window than a specific date.
Farther north, Charlotte, Raleigh, Memphis and Nashville typically get their first measurable snow around New Year’s or sometime in January, while Washington, D.C., Oklahoma City and Seattle usually land in the second half of December.
St. Louis, Louisville and New York City tend to get their first measurable snow during the first half of December, according to Hall’s map.
By the second half of November, the zone expands across Chicago, Indianapolis, Detroit and Boise, while Minneapolis, Buffalo, Salt Lake City and Spokane are more commonly in the first half of November.
The earliest broad region is the northern Rockies and northern Plains, where cities such as Fargo, Billings, Cheyenne and Denver often see their first measurable snowfall during October.
Hall stressed that those dates are averages rather than promises, and the actual first snowfall can vary by weeks in either direction.
That caveat is important because first-snow timing is especially sensitive to one strong cold front or one well-timed storm, which means a seasonal pattern can shift the odds without determining the exact day.
Strong El Niño Could Push Some Areas Later
Hall said this winter stands out because El Niño has continued strengthening in the Pacific, with the monitored region reaching 3.1 degrees Celsius above normal in the most recent weekly reading he cited.
He described that as the highest weekly value ever measured, surpassing the peak of the powerful 2015 El Niño, and said the fact that it reached that level so early in the season suggests the event could strengthen further.
Hall said a very strong El Niño usually does two important things to the U.S. pattern.
First, it strengthens the southern branch of the jet stream, increasing storm activity from California across the southern United States.
Second, it can promote a broad area of low pressure near Alaska, which helps spread milder Pacific air across much of the northern half of the country.
For areas in the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic, Hall said past strong El Niño winters often delayed the first measurable snowfall.
He pointed to Cincinnati, Columbus, Lexington and Philadelphia, where seven or eight of the nine major El Niño winters he examined produced a late first snow.
Baltimore, he said, was often delayed even more, with the typical strong El Niño pushing the first measurable snowfall back by roughly a month in some cases.
Hall also highlighted more extreme examples, including the winter of 1982, when St. Louis waited nearly two months longer than usual for its first measurable snow and Cincinnati waited more than six weeks.
During the most recent El Niño, he said New York City did not record its first measurable snow until January 6, while Seattle reportedly waited until March.
Rockies And Northern Plains Look Closer To Normal
Hall said the picture is less clear across the Rockies and northern Plains.
On one hand, early October is expected to be unusually warm and dry across places such as Salt Lake City, Billings and Boise, which would normally argue for a later first snowfall.
On the other hand, Hall said the strong El Niño years he studied often brought the first snow a little earlier than average in some of those same areas.
Those two signals pull in opposite directions, so he said he is keeping most of the northern Rockies and northern Plains fairly close to normal, perhaps with a slight lean toward a later start.
The Great Lakes and Northeast are expected to see a meaningful cold shot in early October, but Hall said most locations there are more likely to get frost than measurable snow from that first push of colder air.
That distinction is worth noting because a cold morning does not necessarily mean winter has truly arrived. The atmosphere still needs enough moisture and a properly placed storm system for measurable snow to develop.
His Forecast Map Favors Later Snow From Oklahoma To Boston
Hall said he combined each station’s normal first-snow date with expected temperature anomalies around that period and then blended that result with what happened during the nine strong El Niño winters.
Using that method, he produced a broad later-than-average zone stretching from Oklahoma and Missouri through Tennessee, the Ohio Valley and much of the East Coast up to Boston.
Cities in that area include Nashville, Louisville, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, Washington, D.C., and New York City.
Hall said he expects the first measurable snow there to arrive anywhere from a few days to about a week later than normal.
A smaller darker-shaded zone, including Baltimore, Philadelphia, Delaware, South Jersey and Oregon’s Willamette Valley, could be delayed one to two weeks or possibly longer.
Baltimore, in particular, is one place where Hall said he expects a more noticeable delay.
Western Oregon and Washington, including Portland and Seattle, also fall into his later-than-average zone.
Southwest Could See Snow Earlier
Hall’s earlier-than-average zone runs through parts of New Mexico, Arizona, the Texas Panhandle, southeastern Colorado and central Kansas.
He said those areas tended to get their first measurable snow earlier during the strongest El Niño winters he examined.
His current estimate is that some locations there could see their first measurable snowfall as much as a week earlier than normal.
Everywhere else, including much of the upper Midwest, northern Plains, Great Lakes, Rockies and Deep South, Hall is keeping the forecast fairly close to climatology for now.
For the Deep South, he said the bigger question is not when snow arrives, but whether measurable snow happens at all.
Hall expects plenty of storms to move through the South this winter, but snow will depend on whether enough cold air arrives at the same time.
That is a useful way to frame the season because a stormy pattern alone does not guarantee snow. In many southern cities, temperatures are often the deciding factor rather than a lack of precipitation.
Louisville Example Shows How To Read The Forecast
Hall used Louisville as an example of how viewers could interpret the map.
The city’s normal first measurable snowfall is around December 4.
Because Louisville falls in his later-than-average zone, Hall added about five days, putting his rough estimate near December 9.
He said viewers could use the same method for their own city by starting with the normal date and then adding time for later-than-average areas or subtracting it for earlier-than-average zones.
Hall repeatedly acknowledged that this is not an exact science and said one unusually strong cold shot could make the forecast look wrong very quickly.
Still, he described it as the best educated estimate available at this stage of the season.
Hall Makes A Very Specific Baltimore Call
As he does each year, Hall finished with one deliberately bold prediction.
For Baltimore, he predicted the first measurable snowfall of the winter will arrive on December 24.
He went even further and jokingly narrowed it down to the first snowflake falling at Fort McHenry at 7:04 a.m.
Hall clearly presented that level of precision as a playful tradition rather than a literal scientific forecast, but his broader Baltimore outlook is more serious: he expects the city’s first measurable snow to arrive later than normal.
The larger message from his forecast is that the strong El Niño may delay the start of winter weather for a wide part of the East while allowing parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains to get an earlier taste of snow.
For most other areas, Hall is staying closer to normal for now, with the expectation that the pattern will become easier to refine as the season gets closer.
Ed spent his childhood in the backwoods of Maine, where harsh winters taught him the value of survival skills. With a background in bushcraft and off-grid living, Ed has honed his expertise in fire-making, hunting, and wild foraging. He writes from personal experience, sharing practical tips and hands-on techniques to thrive in any outdoor environment. Whether it’s primitive camping or full-scale survival, Ed’s advice is grounded in real-life challenges.
