Meteorologist Ryan Hall says new Pacific Ocean data has forced him to change part of his winter forecast, not simply because El Niño is strengthening, but because the surrounding ocean pattern looks very different from the major El Niño winters that forecasters often use for comparison.
Hall, host of the meteorology YouTube channel Ryan Hall, Y’all, said the evolving setup could have major implications for storm tracks, cold air and snowfall across the United States during the 2026-2027 winter.
“This winter is starting to look a lot more strange than what we originally thought,” Hall said while explaining why he was revising his outlook.
The biggest change centers on the southern and south-central United States, where Hall now sees a better opportunity for at least one significant snow or ice storm if cold Canadian air manages to meet the active southern storm track at the right time.
El Niño Keeps Getting Stronger
Hall said NOAA is now placing the chance of a very strong El Niño at 98%, while the chance of the event reaching a level higher than anything in records going back to 1950 has climbed to 75%.
That figure had been 69% roughly a month earlier, he said, suggesting that the warming Pacific continues to develop rapidly.
Parts of the eastern Pacific are already running more than 5 degrees above normal at the surface, according to Hall, while some water below the surface is as much as 18 degrees warmer than normal.
“There’s a ridiculous amount of heat sitting out there,” he said.
That kind of El Niño typically pushes the winter storm track farther south, placing California, Texas, the Gulf Coast and Southeast in a more active pattern.
Hall said that part of his original forecast has not weakened. In fact, he has become more confident that storms will frequently travel across the southern half of the country this winter.
What has changed is what may happen farther north of that storm track.
The Pacific Does Not Look Like Other ‘Monster’ El Niños
Hall compared the developing ocean pattern with famous strong El Niño winters including 1997-1998 and 2015-2016.
In those years, he said, unusually warm water was positioned much closer to the West Coast, while cooler water sat farther out across the North Pacific.
This year looks different.
Hall said the largest pool of warm water is positioned much farther west, stretching toward Japan, while conditions closer to the U.S. coastline do not resemble those earlier El Niño setups.
That difference matters because Pacific Ocean temperatures can influence the position and behavior of the jet stream.
During a traditional strong El Niño, Hall explained, a large low-pressure system often develops around Alaska and helps send relatively mild Pacific air across the northern United States.
That milder air can follow southern storms eastward and prevent many of them from turning into major snow events, even when plenty of moisture is available.
This year, however, the warm-water pattern farther west may favor higher pressure around Alaska instead. Hall said that could bend the jet stream differently and create a more effective pathway for cold Canadian air to move south into the United States.
“So, this El Niño winter is going to have the wheel turning one way, and the North Pacific is going to try to pull it back,” he said.
That competing setup is arguably the most interesting part of Hall’s forecast because it makes simple comparisons with previous strong El Niño years less useful. A powerful El Niño is still expected to dominate the overall winter pattern, but another part of the Pacific may be working against some of its usual effects.
Hall Watches a ‘Winter Storm Battleground’
Hall is paying particularly close attention to a corridor stretching from Oklahoma and Arkansas through Tennessee and Kentucky, into the Appalachians, Carolinas and Virginia.
He called that region his “winter storm battleground.”
Hall said he is now considerably more confident that somewhere in that zone could experience a significant snowstorm or ice storm during the winter.
The reasoning is not that a stronger El Niño automatically means more snow. In fact, Hall pointed out that the major El Niño winters of 1982, 1997 and 2015 were generally poor snow producers across the Mid-South.
The missing ingredient in those winters was often cold air.
A southern snowstorm needs both an active storm and temperatures cold enough to produce snow or ice, Hall explained. El Niño is very good at delivering storms and moisture, but mild Pacific air has historically prevented the two ingredients from lining up.
Hall pointed to February 1998 as an example of what can happen when they do.
During that strong El Niño winter, a storm traveled up the East Coast at the same time cold Canadian air pushed south. Louisville, Kentucky, received 22 inches of snow, which Hall described as the largest snowstorm in the city’s history.
One storm accounted for much of Louisville’s winter snowfall.
That example does not mean another event of that scale is certain, and Hall was careful to acknowledge the limits of comparing a small number of past winters.
Still, the possibility becomes more intriguing if the North Pacific pattern makes it easier for cold air to reach the southern storm track this time around.
One Storm Could Define the Season
Hall also looked at other strong El Niño winters in which the North Pacific was not arranged like the better-known 1997 and 2015 events.
Two of three examples produced substantial snowfall in parts of the Mid-South, he said, while one did not.
In the snowier winters, some locations received roughly one-and-a-half to twice their normal seasonal snowfall. Hall said Oklahoma City finished one of those winters with 23 inches of snow.
He also pointed to January 1966, during another strong El Niño, when Alabama recorded a temperature of 27 degrees below zero with roughly a foot of snow on the ground.
Hall stressed that three winters are far too small a sample to establish a reliable rule.
“I’m not going to sit here and pretend like we just cracked some secret code of how to get snow in the winter in the South,” he said.
Instead, Hall’s revised forecast is more modest: he is not predicting an unusually snowy winter across the entire South, but he now believes the opportunity for one major snow or ice event has increased across the region he is watching.
That distinction is important. A winter can be fairly mild overall and still produce one memorable storm if moisture and cold air briefly overlap in exactly the right place.
Hall said that if a major system were to emerge from Texas during January with abundant moisture, the key question would immediately become how far south the cold air manages to travel.
If it remains farther north, much of the storm could fall as rain, perhaps accompanied by severe weather. If the cold reaches farther south, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, the Appalachians and possibly the Carolinas could suddenly enter the snow and ice zone.
Northern Snow Belts May Still Struggle
While Hall has become more interested in the South, his forecast for much of the northern United States has not changed significantly.
He still expects temperatures to lean warmer than normal across a large portion of the northern tier.
There is also a weak dry signal near the Great Lakes, including Missouri, Illinois, northern Indiana and northern Ohio, according to Hall.
Seven of the eight strongest El Niño winters finished with below-normal snowfall in some of those northern areas, he said, often by a sizable margin.
Hall therefore continues to expect parts of the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest to end the winter with noticeably less snow than usual.
Along the East Coast, however, the situation remains far less clear.
Hall said Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, New York and Boston should have plenty of storm opportunities, with the wetter pattern potentially extending well into New England.
The difficult part is determining whether those storms fall as rain or snow.
He illustrated the uncertainty by comparing Washington, D.C., during two different El Niño winters. The city received just one-tenth of an inch of snow during the 1997-1998 season, according to Hall, but 56.1 inches during 2009-2010.
The storm signal may therefore be relatively clear, while the temperature pattern remains the deciding factor.
Hall Moves His Winter Map North
The other major revision involves the West Coast and Pacific Northwest.
California still looks active later in winter, Hall said, with NOAA indicating roughly a 50% to 60% chance of wetter-than-normal conditions in parts of the state.
His original wet zone stopped farther south, but Hall is now extending it north into central Oregon because newer forecasts show the wetter signal reaching farther up the coast.
He also acknowledged greater uncertainty across the broader Northwest.
“El Niño says mild and dry, but the water off of our coast says not so fast,” Hall said.
That competing Pacific pattern could even leave the door open to one or two cold outbreaks across Idaho, Montana and Wyoming, although Hall still generally favors drier conditions there.
For him, that uncertainty is a reminder that seasonal forecasts should not be treated as hard borders on a map. The middle of a forecast zone usually carries greater confidence, while the edges are much less certain.
For now, Hall expects the Gulf Coast and Florida to remain wet and stormy, the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest to lean toward less snow, California to become more active later in winter and the East Coast to see numerous systems without a clear answer yet on how many become snowstorms.
But the biggest change is farther inland.
The corridor from Oklahoma through parts of the Southeast now has more storm opportunities in Hall’s revised outlook, along with a potentially better chance of accessing cold air.
Most of those storms may still produce rain, and some could include severe weather. Yet each one could offer another chance for winter weather if cold air manages to push just far enough south.
“I don’t know where that storm happens. I don’t even know if it’s going to happen,” Hall said. “But based on everything I’m looking at right now, this is the part of the country where I think the opportunity is getting more and more interesting.”
That uncertainty may ultimately be what defines this winter forecast. El Niño is becoming exceptionally strong, but the rest of the Pacific does not appear willing to follow the familiar script, leaving parts of the country with a winter that could look very different depending on how those competing patterns interact.
Growing up in the Pacific Northwest, John developed a love for the great outdoors early on. With years of experience as a wilderness guide, he’s navigated rugged terrains and unpredictable weather patterns. John is also an avid hunter and fisherman who believes in sustainable living. His focus on practical survival skills, from building shelters to purifying water, reflects his passion for preparedness. When he’s not out in the wild, you can find him sharing his knowledge through writing, hoping to inspire others to embrace self-reliance.
