Real estate agents are “in panic mode,” housing and real estate YouTuber Michael Bordenaro says, because hundreds of thousands of agents are expected to leave the business in 2026 after several years of weak home sales and shrinking commissions.
In his video, Bordenaro says the problem is not simply that real estate has become harder. It is that many agents are earning what he calls “starvation wages” in a market where there are too few transactions to support the number of people holding licenses.
According to Bordenaro, the real estate industry has always been uneven. The top 10% or 20% of agents often do most of the business, while the average agent survives by closing a few sales a year, maybe adding some rental deals, and building a steady enough income around that.
But that model only works when homes are actually selling at a normal pace.
Bordenaro says that is no longer the case. He claims roughly 300,000 real estate agents are expected to quit this year because “people are not making money,” and because home sales have continued to fall year after year.
That is the core problem for agents right now: they do not get paid for effort, time, showings, phone calls, research, or months of client hand-holding. They get paid when a deal closes, and in this market, fewer deals are closing.
The Boom Brought In Too Many Agents
Bordenaro says the industry has seen this pattern before.
Whenever real estate booms, he says, a rush of new people gets licensed, hoping to make money while the market is hot. He pointed to the 2008 era and again to the pandemic-era housing frenzy around 2021, when easy money, low mortgage rates, and surging prices pulled many people into the business.
Now, he argues, many of those same people are being pushed back out.
Bordenaro is blunt about that part. He says some of the people leaving the business “had no place being in the business to begin with,” and he calls their exit good news for agents who treat real estate as a serious profession.
That may sound harsh, but there is a real point underneath it. When an industry has a low barrier to entry and a hot market, it attracts people who may not be prepared for the grind when conditions turn.
Bordenaro, who says he previously worked as an average agent rather than a top producer, described the frustration of investing months into a client only to lose the deal at the last moment because a relative or acquaintance had recently gotten licensed.
He said clients would sometimes say they were going to use a cousin or brother-in-law instead, after he had already spent considerable time helping them.
That kind of experience, Bordenaro says, was one of the reasons he eventually left the business.
Most Agents Are Not Closing Anything
Bordenaro cited several numbers to show how brutal the market has become for agents.
He said 71% of agents did not close a single transaction in 2025, while nearly 30% of agents were responsible for most of the transactions. In one MLS study he referenced, 48% of agents sold one home or none at all.
Those figures paint a very different picture from the image many people have of real estate agents driving around, showing houses, and collecting big commission checks.
For many license holders, there may be no checks at all.
Bordenaro did add an important caveat. Some people hold a real estate license even though they do not actively work as agents. Some investors keep a license to save on commissions when buying or selling for themselves, while others maintain one for referral purposes.
That referral model, he said, has grown in recent years as some agents step back from daily sales but still hope to earn money by sending leads to active agents.
Bordenaro said he now does this himself, explaining that he refers viewers to agents in his network rather than selling real estate directly.
In his view, this reflects a broader shift. Some agents are no longer making enough to justify working full-time in the business, but they still want to capture a little income when someone in their circle needs to buy or sell.
Even Surviving Agents Have Less To Chase
For agents who remain in the business, Bordenaro says the market is still extremely difficult because there are fewer sales to go around.
He said real estate transactions are hovering around early 1990s levels, even though there are far more agents than there were back then. Even if 300,000 agents leave, he argues, the remaining agents are still fighting over a smaller pool of deals.
Bordenaro said one struggling agent told him she was dreading the coming summer because Miami real estate often slows down during that season.
He noted that he used to work with European buyers during the summer, since many visited South Florida for vacation and sometimes looked for second homes. But he said the larger issue remains: there are fewer buyers, fewer closings, and more pressure on everyone still trying to survive on commissions.
Established agents with loyal clients and referral networks may be better positioned, but even they are not immune.
As Bordenaro put it, people only buy so many houses, and they only have so many friends and relatives to refer.
That is where the pressure from the broader economy becomes important. With inflation still weighing on households, the job market looking shaky, and mortgage affordability still strained, many potential buyers are staying on the sidelines.
Prices Are Falling, But Not Enough
Bordenaro also pointed to falling home prices as a sign that the market is shifting.
He said Zillow data shows home prices are now declining year-over-year in 24 of the 50 largest metro areas in America. He cited drops in markets including Tampa, Orlando, Miami, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Seattle, San Jose, Phoenix, San Francisco, and San Diego.
According to Bordenaro, this undercuts the claim that prices are not falling. He argues that some people deny the decline because they either have a financial interest in rising prices or live in a market where prices have not yet turned negative.
The hardest-hit markets, he says, are often the same places that surged during the pandemic, including Austin, Tampa, Orlando, Dallas, Phoenix, Las Vegas, and parts of Florida.
Still, Bordenaro does not believe current price declines are enough to bring most buyers back.
He said many markets need price drops of 20% to 30% before buying becomes realistic again for local households. Until then, he argues, renting often makes more financial sense than buying.
Austin, Texas, is his example of what happens when prices fall far enough. Bordenaro said prices there have dropped close to 30% since 2022, and sales activity has started rising again because homes are becoming more affordable.
In his view, that is the “equilibrium” other markets need to reach.
Inventory Is Rising While Buyers Hold Back
Bordenaro said inventory is increasing at the same time demand remains weak.
He cited national sales being down slightly from a year ago while new listings rose, and said Zillow found listings growing faster than sales for the first time all year. In March alone, he said new listings jumped more than 10%.
That creates a better environment for buyers, but not necessarily an easy one.
Bordenaro stressed that when he says it is a better time to be a buyer, he does not mean it is cheap or ideal. He means it is better than the extreme seller’s market buyers faced in recent years.
That distinction matters. Buyers may have more options and more negotiating power, but many still cannot afford the monthly payment.
He also said April saw about 323,000 home sales nationwide, which would annualize to just over 3.8 million sales for 2026. Bordenaro said that would be worse than the already weak 4 million sales seen in recent years.
For real estate agents, that is a grim number. A market with fewer than 4 million annual sales does not leave much room for a bloated agent population.
Renters And Owners Are Feeling Squeezed, Too
Later in the video, Bordenaro shifted from agents to the people trying to navigate the housing market as renters and homeowners.
He shared a story from a viewer named Sherman, who described being shocked by the number of fees attached to renting after years in the same place. Bordenaro said these can include non-refundable application fees, pet deposits, monthly pet rent, cleaning fees, administrative fees, and separate utility charges that used to be covered by landlords.
He said this kind of nickel-and-diming makes it harder for renters to save money to buy a home.
That is an important point because people often talk about renting as the flexible option, but renters can still get squeezed by unpredictable add-ons and corporate fee structures.
Bordenaro also shared a story from another viewer, Alex, who bought a home in Punta Gorda, Florida, and later received a notice from the county over permit issues tied to storm-damage rules.
According to Bordenaro’s summary, Alex had checked for violations before buying, made ordinary updates after purchase, and then learned that improvements to a previously flooded home could trigger permitting rules even when the work was not directly storm-related.
Bordenaro used the story to argue that homeownership can come with expensive surprises, especially when local rules, flood history, permits, insurance, and repairs collide.
His larger point is that neither renting nor owning is problem-free. Renters face fees and rising costs. Owners face taxes, permits, repairs, liens, insurance, and rules that can be hard to understand until something goes wrong.
A Shrinking Industry Faces A Hard Reset
Bordenaro’s message is not sympathetic to every struggling agent, but it is direct: the real estate business expanded during the boom, and now the downturn is forcing a painful reset.
Some agents will leave because they were never serious professionals. Others may leave despite working hard, simply because the numbers no longer support them.
That is the uncomfortable part of this market. Even good agents cannot create affordability, lower mortgage rates, or force cautious buyers to move.
For buyers, the shift may bring more listings and more negotiating power. For sellers, it may mean lower expectations. For agents, it means fewer chances to earn a living.
Bordenaro said he would be celebrating if he were still an active agent because less competition would help the survivors. But even then, the celebration would be limited.
A smaller crowd of agents does not fix a frozen housing market by itself. Until sales recover, inventory clears, and prices meet buyers where their incomes actually are, many agents will keep feeling the squeeze.
And for the agents who entered the business during the easy-money years, the current market is delivering a harsh lesson: real estate can look glamorous during a boom, but when transactions dry up, the commission business can become a very fast path to running out of money.
To hear more, check out Michael Bordenaro’s video here.
Growing up in the Pacific Northwest, John developed a love for the great outdoors early on. With years of experience as a wilderness guide, he’s navigated rugged terrains and unpredictable weather patterns. John is also an avid hunter and fisherman who believes in sustainable living. His focus on practical survival skills, from building shelters to purifying water, reflects his passion for preparedness. When he’s not out in the wild, you can find him sharing his knowledge through writing, hoping to inspire others to embrace self-reliance.
