Meteorologist Ryan Hall opened his latest forecast with a simple point that feels bigger than it sounds: the weather map is splitting the country in two this holiday week.
In Ryan Hall’s words, it’s a “huge weather divide,” and once you see the setup, it’s hard to unsee it. Parts of the U.S. are staring at dangerous storms and travel trouble, while a big chunk of the middle is sitting under a warm, quiet “force field” of high pressure.
Ryan Hall recorded the forecast on Tuesday, Dec. 23. Now it’s Christmas Eve, and the timing he highlighted is no longer “coming soon.” For some places, it’s here.
California’s Rare High-Risk Flood Setup On Christmas Eve
Ryan Hall’s biggest warning was aimed at Southern California, where he said a rare “high risk” for excessive rainfall was issued. He stressed that this is not the kind of alert you see often, and it’s even worse that it’s lining up with holiday travel.
Ryan Hall described it as an atmospheric river that turns into a “non-stop fire hose of moisture.” He specifically pointed to areas north and west of the Los Angeles Basin, where the terrain “squeezes out” water fast.
He also said evacuation orders were already in place around Malibu, especially near burn-scar areas. That part matters because burn scars don’t soak up rain the same way healthy ground does, so mudslides can happen fast and hit hard.
Ryan Hall laid out the key timing: the heaviest rain was expected to arrive Wednesday and continue into Thursday morning, with an 18-hour window of intense downpours. From a Christmas Eve perspective, that’s basically “today into early tomorrow” for many people in the region.
He warned this is the kind of flooding event that can overwhelm drainage systems and make roads disappear under water and debris. He painted a pretty chilling picture of towns getting cut off because canyon communities may only have one or two roads in and out.
Ryan Hall even brought up a personal connection through meteorologist Andy Hill, saying Andy is from that area and seemed deeply concerned about what the locals could face. I’ll add this: when people who know the terrain start sounding worried, that’s usually the moment to stop treating it like “just rain.”
Ryan Hall talked numbers too. He said rainfall totals could be widespread 4 to 7 inches, with isolated foothill spots pushing 9 to 10 inches.
He made a point I wish more people heard before storms like this: even if you’ve “seen these before,” that doesn’t mean you’ll be fine this time. Ryan Hall said this is a setup where places that don’t normally flood are likely to flood.
That’s the trap with weather. Familiarity can make people careless, and storms don’t care about your past experiences.
Tornado Talk In California Sounds Weird – But Ryan Hall Says It’s Real
Ryan Hall didn’t stop with flooding. He said this storm system also comes with a severe weather risk, including a “pretty wild” 2% tornado risk across places like Los Angeles, San Francisco, and Sacramento.
People hear “2% tornado risk” and shrug. But in regions where tornado warnings are rare, even a small risk can be a big deal, because the public isn’t always primed to react quickly.
Ryan Hall explained the setup: a low pressure system just offshore, plus a “screaming” 100-knot mid-level jet producing intense wind shear. He said that shear can help low-topped storms rotate.
He wasn’t calling for a Plains-style outbreak. But he warned these storms can still drop brief tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail, and he flagged extra danger for drivers on Interstate 5 and Highway 99 during the worst of it.
He also emphasized the timing window for severe weather: Wednesday afternoon into evening, and possibly into Thursday, as another round of storms comes in with more wind shear to work with.
I’ll say it plainly: tornado warnings on Christmas Eve in California is the kind of headline people remember for years. If you’re in that region, this is not the time to treat weather alerts like background noise.
Sierra Snow That Can Strand You For Days
While the valleys deal with flooding, Ryan Hall said the Sierra Nevada is facing an “extreme impact winter storm.” He talked about a setup that could drop 4 to 8 feet of snow in the high country, especially above 7,000 feet.
He described it as “concrete-like snow,” which is a blunt way of saying it can be heavy, dense, and punishing for travel. That’s not the fluffy holiday postcard snow people dream about. That’s the kind that breaks tree limbs and buries cars.
Ryan Hall specifically warned about Donner Pass on I-80, saying travel could become almost impossible in certain areas. He said snowfall rates could exceed 2 to 3 inches per hour, ramping up late at night and peaking on Wednesday, then staying heavy into Thursday.
Ryan Hall also pushed back against the “chasing a white Christmas” idea. He said even experienced drivers, even locals, could get stranded for days in this kind of snow.
That might be the most useful advice in the whole forecast. If you have to “seek out” a white Christmas by driving into a major winter storm, you’re not chasing a vibe – you’re gambling with your own rescue timeline.
The Northeast Gets Snow, While The Middle Of The Country Warms Up
Ryan Hall said the Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast was dealing with snow as well. He noted snow in New Jersey and said he’d seen a lot of accident reports popping up in Pennsylvania.
He said light to moderate snow would continue into upstate New York and New England, then taper off, but some higher elevation areas could still squeeze out more than 8 inches, while valleys might see closer to 4 inches.
So yes, Ryan Hall said there are plenty of “good candidates for white Christmases” up there. But even lighter snow can cause serious travel issues when it’s falling at the wrong time on the wrong roads.
Then Ryan Hall zoomed out to the bigger pattern: a strong ridge of high pressure sitting over the central U.S. He said the perimeter around that ridge is “pretty active,” with storms around the edges, but a calmer stretch in the Plains, Ohio Valley, and Southeast.
Ryan Hall called the Christmas warmth “fully locked in,” warning of record-breaking temperatures in the central U.S. He said temperatures could run 25 to 30 degrees above average, and he expected places like Topeka and Kansas City to threaten daily records.
If you’re someone who loves a cold Christmas, Ryan Hall said he gets it. But he also offered an angle that’s hard to argue with: that ridge is acting like a “force field,” keeping the most unsettled weather away from a big portion of the country during peak travel.
My own take is this: warm doesn’t automatically mean “safe,” but calm skies do reduce crash risk, flight delays, and roadside emergencies. In a week like this, boring weather is a gift.
What Ryan Hall Says Comes Next After Christmas
Ryan Hall said the “moisture train” would keep hammering the West Coast with no clear end in sight until around Saturday. That’s important because back-to-back storms can stack impacts, especially if the ground is already saturated and slopes are already unstable.
He also said attention may shift back to the Northeast around December 29 through 31, where another snow chance could show up as the calendar flips toward New Year’s.
Ryan Hall said a major cold front could also move into the eastern U.S. near that time, bringing temperatures back below average and turning lake effect snow “machines” back on. In other words, the warm Christmas isn’t the forever pattern—just a temporary holiday bubble.
He also flagged a separate threat right after Christmas: a model signal for a potentially significant ice threat in parts of Wisconsin and Michigan, then shifting toward Pennsylvania. He said it could also bring another snow chance toward New Jersey and even New York City as the system evolves.
Ryan Hall mentioned the possibility of 6 to 8 inches of snow with that setup, and he said he’d be watching the ice risk closely because ice is often the real problem in winter storms. Snow is disruptive, but ice can snap lines, shut down roads, and turn simple travel into a medical emergency.
Finally, Ryan Hall told viewers he’d likely have another update soon, with clearer detail as the systems get closer. That’s how forecasting works: the big pattern shows up first, and the sharp edges come into focus later.
On Christmas Eve, the bottom line from Ryan Hall is pretty direct: if you’re in Southern California, don’t treat this like ordinary rain, and if you’re anywhere near Sierra travel corridors, don’t try to out-drive a storm that can bury you.
And if you’re in the middle of the country enjoying warm, quiet weather, you might be sitting in the one zone of the map that isn’t trying to ruin someone’s holiday plans.
Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.
