California could be headed for a wetter and stormier winter as El Niño continues to strengthen in the equatorial Pacific, according to ABC7 News Bay Area meteorologist Drew Tuma.
In a forecast report from ABC7 News Bay Area, Tuma said the latest update from the Climate Prediction Center shows waters in the equatorial Pacific running 1.2 degrees Celsius above average, placing the pattern solidly in moderate El Niño territory.
Tuma said the warming is expected to continue as the winter season approaches, raising the odds that El Niño could become strong or even very strong by the time California enters its main storm season.
“El Niño continues to strengthen and will intensify as we head toward the winter season,” Tuma said.
El Niño Is Officially Strengthening
Tuma reported that ocean temperatures along the equatorial Pacific are now warm enough to support moderate El Niño conditions.
That matters because El Niño is one of the major climate patterns that can influence winter weather across the United States, especially the path storms take over the Pacific and into the West Coast.
The Climate Prediction Center, which Tuma cited in his report, is now forecasting additional warming through the winter months. According to Tuma, the CPC gives a 54% chance that this winter could produce a very strong El Niño, meaning sea surface temperatures would rise more than 2 degrees Celsius above average.
“Even a strong El Niño is very likely,” Tuma said.
That does not mean every forecast detail is locked in. But it does mean the ocean pattern that often supports a more active California winter is becoming harder to ignore.
The Pacific Jet Stream Could Shift South
Tuma explained that El Niño affects California by influencing the Pacific jet stream.
He described the jet stream as the “highway storms travel on,” and said El Niño tends to force that storm track farther south over Southern California.
When that happens, storms have a better chance of reaching more of the state, not only the northern counties that often get the bulk of winter rain.
That is why forecasters are watching this setup closely. A stronger El Niño can increase the odds of a wet winter across California, including the Bay Area, Central Coast, Southern California, and mountain regions that depend on winter storms for snowpack.
Tuma said that pattern points toward a “likely wetter than normal winter across the entire state.”
For California, that kind of wording matters. A wet winter can bring major benefits for reservoirs, groundwater, snowpack, and drought relief. But it can also bring hazards, including flooding, mudslides, dangerous travel, and damage in burn scar areas.
Strong El Niño Does Not Guarantee Heavy Rain
Tuma was careful to point out that El Niño increases the odds of a wet winter, but does not guarantee one.
He said previous very strong El Niño winters in the Bay Area have produced mixed outcomes. Of the last four winters with very strong El Niño conditions, two brought above-average rainfall, one produced average rainfall, and one ended below average.
That history is important because it keeps the forecast grounded. El Niño loads the dice toward a wetter pattern, but it does not control every storm, every ridge of high pressure, or every regional rainfall total.
“The odds will favor a rainy winter ahead,” Tuma said. “But again, it’s not guaranteed, as each winter is very unique across the region.”
That is the right way to frame a seasonal forecast. It is not a promise of constant storms, and it is not a reason to panic months in advance. It is a signal that the background pattern may become more favorable for active weather.
California Has Seen This Pattern Before
Tuma said longtime Bay Area residents may remember strong El Niño winters in past decades, including the 1980s and 1990s, when rainfall finished above average in some years.
Those winters are part of why El Niño gets so much attention in California. When the pattern lines up with other storm-friendly conditions, the state can see repeated Pacific systems, heavy rain, strong winds, and major Sierra snow.
But the uneven history also shows why meteorologists avoid absolute language. A very strong El Niño can still underdeliver if storms miss the right track or if blocking patterns keep the wettest systems away.
Still, the current forecast gives California a better-than-average chance of a stormy winter.
For residents, the practical takeaway is not to assume disaster, but to prepare early. Gutters, storm drains, emergency supplies, flood-prone roads, and travel plans all become more important when the odds of a wetter winter rise.
A Wetter Winter Could Bring Benefits And Risks
California often needs winter storms, but the state also knows how quickly beneficial rain can become damaging.
A strong storm season can help refill reservoirs and build mountain snowpack, especially after dry stretches. Farmers, water managers, and communities across the state watch winter precipitation closely because it shapes water supply for months afterward.
At the same time, too much rain too quickly can cause serious problems.
Urban flooding, swollen creeks, rockslides, debris flows near burn scars, and dangerous mountain travel can all become concerns during active winter patterns. Even a welcome wet season can become costly if storms arrive in intense bursts.
That is why Tuma’s report is less about one specific storm and more about the larger setup forming months ahead of time.
The ocean is warming. El Niño is strengthening. The Climate Prediction Center expects additional intensification. And California’s odds of a wetter winter are rising.
The Forecast Favors A Stormier Setup
Tuma’s report leaves California with a cautious but clear message: the state is entering the second half of the year with a strengthening El Niño that could influence the winter storm track.
The current ocean temperatures already place the pattern in moderate territory, and the forecast points toward strong or very strong conditions by winter.
That gives California a better chance of a wet season, but not a guarantee.
For now, the signal is strong enough that residents should pay attention, especially in areas prone to flooding or storm damage. A storm-filled winter may not be certain, but the odds are moving in that direction.
As Tuma explained, every winter is unique, but this one is beginning with a powerful climate pattern that could put California directly in the path of more Pacific storms.
Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.
