The fall migration is here – and with it, a grim drumbeat.
On Yanasa TV, farm host Charlie Rankin warns that the signs are worse than last year. He rattles off the headlines: hundreds of thousands of birds culled in Wisconsin, backyard flocks in Michigan testing positive, dead vultures piling up in Virginia, and Nevada telling hunters to beware sick birds and “toxic ponds.”
That’s not scaremongering, Rankin argues. It’s a field report.
And if he’s right, this winter will test the food system again – eggs, poultry, and everything those proteins tug along with them.
I think he’s right to raise the alarm. The pieces fit together in a way that’s hard to ignore.
A Relentless Wave Of Avian Flu
Rankin’s central point is simple: this outbreak is trending worse.
He says more than 5 million U.S. birds were already culled in the early weeks of fall – roughly double the pace of last October. Wisconsin alone just wiped out half a million in one blow.
That’s on top of Virginia’s reports of hundreds of dead wild birds – especially vultures and waterfowl – where officials are telling people don’t touch, just report.
It’s not confined to one pocket. Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Michigan are all in the conversation, with Michigan again finding the virus in backyard flocks.
Rankin describes this strain of HPAI as “highly unusual,” noting its detections across species and its capacity to persist season after season without clear herd immunity taking hold. He’s been tracking it since 2022, and the pattern, in his telling, is a staircase of new “records:” 2023 set a bar, 2024 beat it, and the early fall of 2025 is on pace to do the same.
I don’t see a reason to doubt that trend line. Migratory mixing, dense commercial production, and a virus that keeps finding hosts – it’s a bad winter recipe.
Wildlife Die-Offs And “Toxic Ponds”
The wildlife story matters because wild birds carry and seed these outbreaks.
Rankin highlights Virginia’s die-offs and Nevada’s hunter advisories about sick birds and toxic ponds – a phrase that makes you sit up. In his framing, it’s the canary in the coal mine: when the wild reservoir is hot, the spillover risk to backyard and commercial flocks rises.
And that spillover cascades into supply shocks.
You don’t have to be a virologist to follow the logic. More virus in the wild means more fences to build, more barns to seal, more chores to sterilize, more chances something goes wrong.
I’d add a practical note: wildlife and water are where backyard biosecurity typically breaks. A single open pond used by migrating ducks can undo months of careful routine.
Eggs, Poultry – And The Domino Effect On Protein Prices
Rankin’s economic point is blunt: egg prices doubled last winter after tens of millions of birds were culled, and poultry prices climbed with them.
And when eggs and chicken spike, beef and pork follow. They’re substitute proteins – shortage in one lane shoves traffic into another.
He argues we’re primed for a repeat, possibly worse: early-season culls already outpacing last year, migratory pathways hotter, and producers facing higher costs to keep the virus out. If that’s true, the price path is predictable.
I agree with his domino logic. Protein markets behave like connected bathtubs: pull one plug, watch the water shift.
A Note Of Caution On Vaccines (And Misinformation)
Rankin also mentions talk of an mRNA vaccine being studied for H5-type viruses and voices skepticism, citing a statement from an indigenous group that called mRNA a “bioweapon.” He says he doesn’t disagree.
Here’s where I’ll clearly separate my view: that characterization isn’t supported by mainstream medical evidence.
Whatever your personal stance on any vaccine, calling the entire platform a “bioweapon” is an extraordinary claim that requires extraordinary proof – and I haven’t seen it. It’s fair to debate policy. It’s not fair to launder incendiary labels as fact.
Even so, Rankin’s larger point stands: a human vaccine doesn’t fix poultry supply. You can’t vaccinate every wild bird, and you can’t wish away the on-farm costs of keeping virus out.
On that, we agree.
Imports, Price “Magic,” And The Local Farm Squeeze
Rankin ties the flu story to something else: price shocks and government fixes.
Last winter, he says, the administration imported eggs from countries like Turkey and South Korea to crash prices after the surge. It worked in the short run. But he argues it smothered recovery, stripping producers of the margin they needed to invest in upgrades, biosecurity, and expansion.
He’s been equally critical of the rumored beef import “magic”, especially a potential Argentina deal, and possibly Brazil, pitched as a way to suppress U.S. beef prices.
In his view, that’s a transfer of wealth out of America’s rural economy that keeps big packers happy while weakening small ranchers’ ability to reinvest right before the next threat hits.
It’s a consistent through-line with Rankin: imports treat symptoms, not causes. And they do it at the expense of the only folks who can actually build resilience – local producers.
I share his skepticism. Strategically, you want more decentralization, more regional capacity, and clearer pathways for small farms to sell locally. Imports can be a pressure valve. They shouldn’t be the operating system.
The Policy Trap: Price Controls Vs. Market Manipulation
Rankin rejects price controls outright – rightly noting that once installed, they’re hard to remove and tend to freeze innovation. But he’s just as critical of the soft version: swinging the pendulum with big imports every time volatility bites.
Both, he says, kill incentives to invest.
His alternative? Deregulation and local market access – cut red tape for small producers, open direct-to-consumer channels, and let regional competition bring prices down the healthy way.
That’s not a silver bullet, but it’s the right target. Give small and midsize operations a real on-ramp—processing slots, simpler licensing for direct sales, proportionate biosecurity standards – and you build slack and redundancy into the food system.
When the next shock hits, you want more nodes, not a few giant chokepoints plus a cargo ship.
A New Threat On The Horizon: Screwworm
Just when you exhale, Rankin drops another anvil: New World screwworm reports got within flight range of the U.S. border, and the USDA is briefing on response.
If you don’t live with livestock, “screwworm” sounds like a comic-book villain. In reality, it’s a brutal parasitic fly whose larvae can devastate herds. Control programs are effective but expensive and labor-intensive.
Rankin’s worry is timing: if we crash beef prices via imports just as a new cattle health threat demands capital upgrades and tighter management, ranchers will be asked to do more with less. Again.
He’s right to flag it. Resilience requires cash flow, and you can’t reinvest the dollars you didn’t earn.
Practical Prep For Shoppers (And A Reality Check)
If Rankin’s forecast is even half right, winter shoppers should expect:
- Higher egg prices and scarcer poultry in some markets.
- Knock-on price pressure for pork and beef.
- More headlines about avian die-offs and backyard flock restrictions.
And if you keep a backyard flock? The boring stuff matters most: biosecurity, contained water sources, clean boots, quarantined new birds, no shared equipment with neighbors. It’s the unglamorous line between “we’re fine” and “we’re calling the state.”
As for policy, this is the year to call legislators about easing local direct-to-consumer rules and scaling processing access. Rankin’s broader point—that we need more local capacity and fewer one-size-fits-all hurdles – isn’t ideological. It’s practical.
Rankin closes with a plea: stop treating short-term price drops as victory laps.
From bird flu to screwworm to supply chain fragility, the system we’ve built is optimized for low friction – until it isn’t. When it breaks, we paper it over with imports, declare success when the sticker price dips, and then act surprised when the next crisis feels worse.
He’s not saying ignore consumers. He’s saying strengthen producers so there’s more food, in more places, grown by more hands. That’s how you weather storms.
I think he’s right. If you want lower prices that last, build capacity, not headlines.
And this winter, capacity will be the difference between a bad season – and a miserable one.
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Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.
