A very active start to September is unfolding across the United States, with a tropical system moving inland through Texas while a separate storm pattern threatens several days of severe weather from the Great Lakes into the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.
Meteorologist Max Schuster, host of the Max Velocity – Severe Weather Center YouTube channel, said the next several days could feature damaging winds, large hail and at least a few tornadoes across a broad stretch of the country, while another tropical system developing in the eastern Pacific could eventually send moisture toward California and Nevada this weekend or early next week.
Schuster said the pattern is unusually busy for the opening days of September, particularly because several different hazards are overlapping at once, including tropical moisture, severe thunderstorms and persistent heat across parts of Texas and Oklahoma.
Edward Moves Inland Across Texas
Tropical Storm Edward, which rapidly developed in the northern Gulf, is expected to continue weakening as it moves inland across Texas, but Schuster said the storm will still bring heavy rain and gusty winds to parts of the state through Wednesday.
The storm was small and compact as it approached the coast, which Schuster said allowed it to intensify relatively quickly before landfall while also keeping the strongest impacts concentrated in a narrow corridor.
As Edward tracks farther inland, shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to spread toward areas around Waco and Killeen, with the tropical moisture helping lower temperatures across parts of central and southeast Texas.
Farther north, however, the heat remains a different story.
Schuster said places such as Dallas and Abilene are likely to remain much hotter because they will miss most of the rain and cloud cover associated with Edward.
The tropical system could still leave behind locally significant rainfall totals, particularly near and just inland from the coast, where Schuster said widespread totals of three to six inches were possible, with isolated areas potentially receiving six to 10 inches.
Because Edward is so compact, those totals may vary dramatically over relatively short distances. One area could receive flooding rainfall while another community only 20 or 30 miles away sees very little.
That sharp cutoff is one of the more unusual features of a small tropical system and makes local forecasting especially important, since broad regional rainfall maps may not fully capture how concentrated the heaviest rain can become.
Severe Weather Shifts Toward The Great Lakes And Northeast
While Edward weakens inland, Schuster said attention will quickly turn toward a much broader severe-weather threat stretching from the Great Lakes into Pennsylvania, New York and parts of the Northeast.
A large slight-risk area is in place for Wednesday, with damaging winds and large hail expected to be the main hazards, although Schuster said a few tornadoes are also possible.
He specifically highlighted the possibility that the tornado threat could increase around Buffalo and Erie if atmospheric conditions develop as some models suggest.
One of the biggest uncertainties is timing.
A line of thunderstorms is expected to move across Pennsylvania and New York during the morning, and Schuster said what happens with that activity could determine how unstable the atmosphere becomes later in the day.
If morning storms leave behind a favorable boundary and enough heating occurs afterward, a more organized severe-weather threat could develop during the afternoon or evening.
One model showed the strongest storms arriving near Lake Erie around 8 p.m., which would place them close to the end of peak daytime heating, while another scenario brought more widespread thunderstorms across Pennsylvania and toward Washington, D.C., earlier in the evening.
Schuster said the forecast will come down to smaller-scale features that are difficult to resolve far in advance, which is common during September when boundaries, cloud cover and localized heating can dramatically change where the strongest storms develop.
Rare Tornado Environment Could Develop Wednesday
The most eye-catching part of Wednesday’s forecast is the potential for unusually strong tornado-supporting parameters in parts of the Northeast.
Schuster said one model showed significant tornado parameter values reaching around five by Wednesday evening, something he described as very unusual for the region.
That does not mean tornadoes are guaranteed, because storms still need to develop in the right place and at the right time, but the environment could become concerning if a supercell forms or enters the area while those ingredients are present.
“This isn’t something that you see often over in the Northeast,” Schuster said.
The uncertainty is important here because the atmosphere may look highly favorable on paper while storms arrive too late, become too clustered, or fail to interact with the best boundary.
Still, Schuster’s forecast suggests Wednesday is one of those days when residents from the Great Lakes into New York and Pennsylvania should pay closer attention than usual, particularly during the afternoon and evening.
The combination of stronger wind shear and potentially unstable air could support more organized storms than a typical late-summer thunderstorm day.
Thursday Could Bring An Even Broader Threat
The severe-weather pattern is expected to continue into Thursday, when Schuster said thunderstorms could stretch across a much larger corridor from Chicago and Milwaukee eastward through Pittsburgh and toward Washington, D.C.
Damaging wind gusts are expected to remain the primary concern, but large hail and several tornadoes could also occur depending on how the boundary sets up.
Schuster said storms could become widespread between roughly 4 p.m. and 11 p.m., with an isolated tornado threat possible across much of the zone between Chicago and the Mid-Atlantic.
That broad coverage is notable because it means the risk is not concentrated around one city or state. Instead, the same larger-scale storm system could generate repeated rounds of severe weather across several regions as it progresses eastward.
By Friday, Schuster expects the threat to become somewhat lower and more focused on the Mid-Atlantic, though severe thunderstorms could still develop there.
The persistence of the pattern is what makes the next few days worth watching. Rather than one isolated severe-weather outbreak, Schuster is describing a sequence in which different parts of the Midwest, Great Lakes, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic could face storms on consecutive days.
Heat Remains In Place Across The Southern Plains
While the northern and eastern United States deal with repeated thunderstorm risks, Schuster said the southern Plains will continue dealing with heat.
Texas and Oklahoma remain under the influence of a strong heat pattern, and areas that do not receive meaningful rainfall from Edward are unlikely to see much relief.
Dallas and Abilene were among the areas Schuster highlighted as remaining hot, while southeast Texas should experience more cloud cover and moisture from the tropical system.
That contrast shows how sharply different the weather can be across the same state, with tropical moisture cooling one region while intense late-summer heat continues only a few hundred miles away.
For September, that split pattern may remain important, especially if strong heat continues building over the southern Plains while storm systems repeatedly move across the northern tier.
Pacific System Could Eventually Turn Toward California
Schuster also drew attention to a separate tropical disturbance expected to develop west of Mexico in the eastern Pacific, where hurricane activity has been much more active.
The system has not fully developed yet, but Schuster said there is a meaningful possibility that it could eventually turn north instead of remaining over open water.
If that happens, moisture could move toward Southern California and Nevada sometime this weekend or early next week.
He estimated the chance of a northward turn at roughly 30% to 40%, with about 30% of the model guidance sending the system toward Southern California.
Even in that scenario, Schuster does not expect a major hurricane to strike California. By the time it approached the region, it would more likely be a weaker tropical storm or tropical disturbance.
The bigger concern would be moisture.
A northward-moving system could bring unusually heavy rain, gusty winds and flooding concerns into parts of California and Nevada, depending on its track and how much strength it retains.
There is still considerable uncertainty, and Schuster emphasized that a tropical system has not yet fully formed, so the forecast will become clearer once the disturbance is better organized.
For now, it is another piece of an already complicated September weather pattern.
Between Edward moving inland, repeated severe-weather threats from the Great Lakes to the East Coast, lingering southern heat and a possible Pacific tropical system turning toward California, Schuster said the opening week of September is shaping up to be much more active than a typical transition out of summer.
The most immediate concern is the Wednesday-through-Friday severe-weather corridor, where relatively small changes in storm timing could determine whether the threat remains scattered or becomes much more organized across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic.
Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.
