Meteorologist Ryan Hall is making an early call on the 2026-27 winter, arguing that a potentially historic El Niño could push the main storm track farther south than usual and create a season that feels almost “backwards” in parts of the United States.
Hall, host of the Ryan Hall, Y’all YouTube channel, said some traditional northern snow belts may struggle to hold onto sustained winter weather, while the southern Plains, Tennessee Valley, Appalachians and parts of the Carolinas could have a better-than-usual chance of seeing at least one memorable snow or ice event if cold air arrives at the right time.
He also expects California to become increasingly active deeper into the season, with repeated Pacific storms capable of producing heavy rain at lower elevations and significant mountain snow farther inland.
A Historic El Niño Could Rearrange The Storm Track
Hall said the entire outlook begins with the tropical Pacific, where El Niño has continued strengthening and could reach a level rarely seen in the modern record.
According to the NOAA probabilities Hall cited, there is a greater than 90% chance that the event becomes very strong and a 69% chance that it exceeds every previous El Niño in records going back to 1950.
That does not mean every region is headed for historic winter weather.
Hall stressed that a powerful El Niño primarily changes where storms prefer to travel, and he compared the jet stream to a railroad track that can be shifted by large changes in tropical Pacific heat.
In his forecast, that track is favored farther south, allowing more storms to move into California and the Southwest before crossing Texas, the Gulf Coast, the Southeast and eventually parts of the East Coast.
Farther north, Pacific air may intrude more often, making it harder for persistent cold to stay locked in for long periods.
That is why Hall believes the winter could feel unusually uneven, with one part of the country dealing with repeated storms while another waits for a sustained cold pattern that never fully settles in.
California Could Become One Of The Biggest Stories
Hall said California may not necessarily see the most dramatic conditions immediately, but he expects the signal for a wetter and stormier pattern to become more important as winter progresses.
Once the main Pacific storm door opens, repeated systems could bring heavy rain to lower elevations and coastal areas while piling up substantial snow in the Sierra and other mountain ranges.
If those storms arrive in clusters, Hall said flooding, mudslides, travel problems and major mountain snow events could become recurring concerns.
The contrast would be especially sharp because the same storm can mean heavy rain in the valleys and feet of snow at elevation.
Hall said he is watching the second half of winter particularly closely for California and the Southwest, when the El Niño-driven storm track may become more established.
That kind of setup can be beneficial for snowpack in some places, but too much precipitation arriving too quickly can also create serious problems, especially in areas vulnerable to runoff or slope failures.
The Deep South May See More Rain Than Snow
Across the Gulf Coast and Deep South, Hall expects a much more active storm pattern, but not necessarily a snowy one.
He said Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia and Florida could see system after system move through during the season, with most of the precipitation falling as rain.
Some of those storms could produce enough rainfall for flash flooding, while warmer setups may support severe thunderstorms and tornadoes.
Hall pointed to the powerful 1997-98 El Niño as an example of how an active southern storm track can become dangerous even when winter weather is not the main concern, noting that a February tornado outbreak in Central Florida during that season killed 42 people.
He made clear that he was not predicting a repeat of that event, but used it to illustrate how much energy can move through the southern storm corridor during a strong El Niño.
For much of the Deep South, Hall said the more important question may be how much rain falls rather than how much snow accumulates.
East Coast Snow May Come Down To A Few Degrees
Farther east, Hall believes moisture will not be the main problem.
He expects enough storms to track toward the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast to give cities from Washington and Baltimore through Philadelphia, New York and Boston repeated chances for winter weather.
The bigger question is temperature.
Hall said the difference between a major snowstorm and a cold rain may come down to whether surface temperatures are near or above 32 degrees when those systems arrive.
He used Washington, D.C., as an example of how wildly different El Niño winters can become.
During the 1997-98 season, the city recorded almost no snow, while the 2009-10 El Niño winter produced 56.1 inches and became the snowiest season on record there.
Baltimore received 77 inches during that same 2009-10 winter.
Hall’s point was that storm frequency alone does not guarantee snow.
If cold air is present at exactly the right time, the East Coast could see large winter storms; if it is just a few degrees warmer, those same systems could become soaking rain events instead.
Northern Snow Belts May Struggle To Keep Winter Locked In
The northern tier is where Hall expects the season to look most unusual.
He described parts of Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, the Dakotas, Iowa, northern Illinois, Indiana and Ohio as a “barely there winter” zone, not because he expects snow to disappear entirely, but because he believes cold spells may repeatedly be interrupted by warmups.
Hall said Arctic air will still reach the region and the Great Lakes will continue producing lake-effect snow, but he does not expect winter to remain firmly established for long stretches.
Instead, he described a pattern of cold, snow, warming, melting and then another return of colder conditions.
NOAA, he said, currently gives much of the northern tier better than even odds of above-normal temperatures during the heart of winter.
If that signal holds, it could reduce seasonal snowfall totals in some cities that usually depend on long periods of cold.
Hall’s prediction is not that the northern United States suddenly turns mild, but that winter may arrive in pieces rather than settling in and staying.
Southern Plains To Appalachians Could Be The Sleeper Zone
The most interesting part of Hall’s outlook may be the corridor from the southern Plains through the Tennessee Valley, Appalachians and toward the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic.
He said Oklahoma, Arkansas, Tennessee, Kentucky, northern Mississippi, Alabama, Georgia, the Carolinas, southern Missouri and even parts of Texas could become a “winter storm battleground.”
The reason is straightforward: Hall expects plenty of storm systems and plenty of moisture to be available.
The uncertainty is whether cold air will arrive at the same time.
He said nobody can know months in advance when Arctic air will dive south, but every time it does this winter, there may be a better-than-usual chance that a storm is already nearby.
That creates opportunities for rain to change into snow, sleet or freezing rain.
Hall was careful not to predict an above-average snow season for the entire South, but he did make one bold call: somewhere from the southern Plains through the Tennessee Valley, Appalachians and toward the Carolinas or Mid-Atlantic, he believes at least one winter storm could become much larger than people expect.
That is the part of the forecast worth watching most closely because southern winter storms do not need to be record-breaking to cause major problems; even moderate snow or ice can become highly disruptive in places that see it less often.
Interior West Could Miss Needed Snow
Hall said the signal he likes least is across parts of the interior West, including Oregon, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, Montana and the northern Rockies.
Some of those areas are already dealing with serious drought and badly need a strong mountain snowpack.
However, if the favored storm track remains displaced too far south, Hall said California and the Southwest could repeatedly receive storms while parts of the drought-stricken interior West watch needed moisture pass by.
He emphasized that this outcome is far from guaranteed, but said it is one of the more concerning possibilities in the current pattern.
Hall Makes Three Big Bets For Winter
Hall ultimately reduced his forecast to three broad predictions.
First, he expects the southern half of the country to have a more active winter than the northern half.
Second, he believes somewhere from the southern Plains through the Tennessee Valley, Appalachians and toward the Mid-Atlantic will see a memorable snow or ice storm that exceeds expectations.
Third, he expects at least some traditional northern snow-belt cities to finish the season with a noticeable portion of their normal snowfall missing.
Hall also cautioned that this remains a long-range outlook rather than a prediction of individual storms months in advance, and the biggest unknown will be how often cold air lines up with the southern storm track.
That uncertainty is especially important for the East Coast and southern battleground zone, where a few degrees could decide whether a storm becomes heavy rain, snow or damaging ice.
His larger point is that a potentially historic El Niño does not guarantee a historic winter everywhere, but it could create an unusually rearranged one in which the places accustomed to snow sometimes miss out while regions farther south get their best opportunities when cold air and moisture finally meet.
Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.
