Axios reporter Julianna Bragg says the U.S. is now on pace for what could be the largest one-year drop in murders ever recorded. Her story points to an analysis by crime stats expert Jeff Asher, who used data from the Real-Time Crime Index.
Bragg notes the index pulls numbers from 570 law enforcement agencies, and it currently has data through October. In that January-through-October window, murders were down 19.8% compared with the same months in 2024.
That’s not a small swing. A drop that steep changes what city life feels like, and it also changes what the national argument sounds like, at least for a moment.
Bragg frames the decline as part of a broader comedown after the COVID-era spike. She also reports that mass killings fell in 2025, hitting their lowest level since 2006, based on the same analysis.
Colion Noir, coming at it from a gun-rights angle, says the trend is even harder to ignore than people want to admit.
In his video, he says violent crime and murder “plummeted” in many parts of the country, and he leans on the same Real-Time Crime Index idea to argue the public story about guns doesn’t match the direction of the numbers.
What The Crime Index Counts And Doesn’t
Bragg’s Axios report is careful about what this dataset actually measures. She explains that the Real-Time Crime Index does not include manslaughter, self-defense killings, negligent deaths, or what it calls “accidental killings.”
That matters because homicide numbers can get messy fast when different agencies classify incidents differently. Bragg is basically warning readers not to treat this as a perfect headcount of every death tied to violence.
She also points out a timing issue: the FBI won’t release official national violent crime numbers for 2025 until next year. But Bragg adds that the index’s estimates have historically tracked closely with federal figures, which is why it’s being treated seriously.
Colion Noir mirrors that “not all the numbers are in yet” point in his own way. He says he cares about facts over “vibes,” but he also admits you can’t pin the whole decline on one simple political explanation.
That’s a rare moment of agreement between a straight-news writeup and a commentary video. Both are basically saying: the decline looks real, but the final scoreboard comes later.
The Broader Slide In Crime Isn’t Just Murder
Bragg’s piece doesn’t stop at killings. She includes a chart comparing January through October of 2024 and 2025 across those 570 agencies, and the declines stack up across categories.
Motor vehicle theft drops the most, down 23.2%. Robbery falls 18.3%, burglary is down 14.8%, and property crime is down 12.3%.
She also reports violent crime as a broader category is down 10.2%. Even categories that often move slower, like aggravated assault, show a decline, though smaller at 7.5%.
The pattern matters because it undercuts the idea that this is just one odd statistic swinging for weird reasons. When multiple categories trend down at the same time, it starts to look like a real shift in daily behavior, policing, or both.
At the same time, I think it’s smart to resist the temptation to declare “problem solved.” A big drop can still leave a city with a lot of violence, and people living there don’t experience safety as a spreadsheet.
City Snapshots And Strange Outliers
Bragg adds local examples to show this isn’t just a national average hiding chaos. She reports that New York City and Memphis each recorded nearly a 20% drop in murders compared with 2024.
She also says Chicago saw murders fall almost 28%, which is a massive swing for a city that’s often used as a symbol in every gun debate. Los Angeles County is listed with murders dropping by nearly 19%, while New Orleans is down a more modest 7.5%.
Then Bragg throws in the “yes, but” that keeps people honest. She reports some places had shocking spikes, including Johnston County, North Carolina, and Gilbert, Arizona, each showing increases of 600% in the index.
Those spikes sound apocalyptic, but they can also happen when a location had a tiny number the year before. If a place went from one murder to seven, that’s a 600% rise, even though the raw count is still small.
Bragg doesn’t claim that explains every jump. She just shows the truth most people already know: crime is local, and even a national drop can still leave a few places feeling like they’re going the wrong direction.
Colion Noir Says The Narrative Is Cracking
Colion Noir builds his whole video around the idea that the decline is happening during “peak gun ownership,” and he treats that as the real headline.
He says murders are dropping while America is “more armed than it has ever been,” with more legal owners and more first-time buyers.
He also cites another research group, saying a mid-year snapshot from the Council on Criminal Justice found homicides down on average across a sample of major cities. He repeats that Chicago is down nearly 28%, and he groups Los Angeles and New Orleans into the “significant drops” bucket.
Noir’s argument is simple: if lawful gun ownership automatically caused more murder, then a period of expanded gun buying should make murder explode, not collapse. He says that’s the uncomfortable part, because it doesn’t fit the talking points people repeat on autopilot.
He also nods to Bragg’s Axios caveat about politics. Noir says Axios is fair to note there’s no definitive evidence tying the 2025 drop to one federal policy, and he admits he’s not trying to force a clean “who did it” answer.
Still, his conclusion is blunt. Noir says the country doesn’t have a “gun problem,” it has a “context problem,” meaning people argue about weapons while ignoring the real mix of motive, crime patterns, and who actually commits violent acts.
The Context Fight Over “Gun Deaths” And Defensive Use
Noir spends a chunk of his video trying to separate “gun deaths” from “gun murders.” He argues people hear the phrase and assume homicide, when he says a large portion of firearm deaths are suicides.
He also brings in defensive gun use, saying even groups that dislike guns admit a low-end number around 60,000 defensive uses a year, while other estimates reach far higher. Noir’s point is that defensive use can outnumber criminal killings, so a debate that ignores that context is missing half the picture.
He also references industry data from the National Shooting Sports Foundation. Noir says the NSSF estimate is about 26.2 million first-time gun buyers since 2020, and he presents that as proof the country is more heavily armed than it was just a few years ago.
Bragg’s Axios report doesn’t take that position, and it doesn’t need to. Her piece is mainly about the crime trend itself and what the Real-Time Crime Index is showing so far.
But putting Bragg and Noir side by side does reveal something interesting. Even when two sources disagree about what the numbers “mean,” they’re still staring at the same basic direction: fewer murders, at least in the data we have through October.
If that direction holds through the full year, it’s going to force a harder conversation. Not “do we care about violence,” because everyone does, but “why did violence drop,” and “what policies or conditions actually move the needle.”
And if the answer turns out to be complicated, that would be the most normal thing of all. Big social trends almost never have one clean cause, and anybody promising a single magic fix is probably selling something.
For now, Bragg’s reporting shows the decline is broad and measurable, while Noir’s commentary shows how quickly people try to claim it as proof their side was right all along.
The smartest move is to hold onto the drop as good news, without turning it into a victory lap before the final numbers land.
Gary’s love for adventure and preparedness stems from his background as a former Army medic. Having served in remote locations around the world, he knows the importance of being ready for any situation, whether in the wilderness or urban environments. Gary’s practical medical expertise blends with his passion for outdoor survival, making him an expert in both emergency medical care and rugged, off-the-grid living. He writes to equip readers with the skills needed to stay safe and resilient in any scenario.
