In a recent video, commentary YouTuber MattyO says the TX-23 Republican primary just lurched back into the headlines – and this time, Brandon Herrera might be the one with the wind at his back.
As MattyO tells it, Herrera, a gun-rights creator with roughly 4.1 million subscribers, is mounting a rematch against incumbent Rep. Tony Gonzales. They fought this primary before. Gonzales survived – barely.
MattyO frames the new dynamic this way: last time was close; this time there’s scandal. And scandal can move votes.
The Allegations Rocking TX-23
According to MattyO, the late-breaking controversy centers on a former Gonzales staffer who died in what authorities initially described as an accidental fire.
He says new reporting and online commentary now allege that Gonzales had an affair with the staffer before her death. MattyO stresses that the explosive details are still alleged – but adds that they’re politically combustible all the same.
MattyO cites a thread by “The Fat Electrician” – a creator who, he notes, also appears with Herrera on a podcast – as one of the loudest voices pushing the affair claim.
He says that creator also insinuates the staffer may have been pregnant and questions why the autopsy hasn’t been released.
Crucially, MattyO doesn’t claim to verify any of it. He explicitly says he can only point to what’s written in a Daily Mail write-up that he discusses.
The way he puts it, the paper said Gonzales’s spokesman “didn’t engage” when offered multiple chances to deny the affair, which, to MattyO, reads as suspicious silence.
Again, he’s careful: these are allegations, not adjudicated facts. But he underlines how they land with voters.
What MattyO Says About the Police Angle
The controversy isn’t just the affair claim, in MattyO’s telling. It’s the process.
He says local investigators petitioned the Texas attorney general to keep 911 audio, video, and reports sealed while the inquiry continues.
He notes that the Daily Mail called that unusual because similar records often come out in active cases.
MattyO raises another layer: the local police reportedly endorsed Gonzales. He argues that creates an appearance problem while the same agency resists releasing records.
He connects that to his own long-standing criticism of the Uvalde Police Department, saying their reputation is already battered by their response to the school shooting.
That history, in his view, erodes public confidence when the same department is now gatekeeping information in a case touching a congressman.
To be clear, MattyO acknowledges this is his opinion. He calls the department incompetent, says favoritism “could” be happening, and labels the optics “very strange.” He’s making a credibility argument, not unveiling new evidence.
Can Scandal Swing 300 Votes?
The core of MattyO’s political analysis is simple math.
He walks through the 2024 GOP primary numbers from the prior Gonzales–Herrera showdown. In the initial round, he says, Gonzales led. In the runoff, MattyO notes, the incumbent won by less than one percentage point – roughly 300 to 400 votes by his tally.
His point: this race was already on a knife’s edge before any scandal. If even a sliver of Gonzales supporters peel off, Herrera could flip it.
MattyO adds that Republican voters in Texas still care about traditional personal conduct issues. If they accept the affair allegation as credible, he thinks that alone could turn the tide – never mind the suggestion of a cover-up, which he implies would be a second blow.
He doesn’t stop there. MattyO also highlights that creators like Donut Operator and Mente publicly blasted Gonzales over the rumors.
He treats that chorus as a signal of where a portion of the right-leaning online ecosystem is leaning – and reminds viewers that Herrera himself is a heavyweight in that world.
What Herrera’s Path Looks Like
MattyO views Herrera as more than a protest candidate.
He calls him a potential “staunch supporter” of the Second Amendment in Congress – the kind of figure he says many Republicans promise to be but often aren’t once elected.
That framing matters. It suggests Herrera’s case to voters isn’t just “Tony is tainted.” It’s “Send a true 2A ally.” MattyO thinks that message resonates deeply in a sprawling, culturally conservative border-to-Hill Country district like TX-23.
He also notes that Herrera nearly toppled Gonzales without a scandal last time. So if the electorate is similar, and if the allegations linger into early voting, MattyO believes Herrera’s odds improve.
Of course, he reminds viewers that a primary win is only step one. There’s a general election. But in MattyO’s view, a Republican nominee with Herrera’s brand would be favored in this district.
Caution, Context, and What Comes Next
It’s worth underscoring how MattyO handles the facts and the fog. He’s clear that much of this is “alleged” and that specifics – like pregnancy claims – remain unverified in public documents.
He repeatedly attributes details to what he’s seen in the Daily Mail article or to what The Fat Electrician posted.
That matters. In politics, the allegation itself often reshapes trajectories long before courts or agencies render conclusions. MattyO’s argument is about momentum, not proof.
From a strategic standpoint, I think he’s largely right about the risk to an incumbent in a razor-thin primary. A story like this, matched with sealed records and official endorsements, can become a referendum on trust.
Even if voters withhold judgment, some will simply decide they’ve had enough drama and back the alternative. When the margin is a few hundred votes, that’s decisive.
There’s a counterpoint, though. If Gonzales can force timely transparency, produce a clear denial, and show neutral validation of the investigation’s process, he might stabilize the ground under him.
But as MattyO emphasizes, timing is everything – and drip-drip secrecy can be fatal in a runoff environment.
The Voter Mood MattyO Is Reading
MattyO spends time on culture and credibility. He says many Republicans are “spineless” or “RINOs,” and that Herrera would vote what he talks.
That’s a mood diagnosis more than a data point, but it tracks with how primary electorates behave when disillusioned with incumbents.
He also points to the creator ecosystem. When mid-size and large right-leaning channels amplify a line against an incumbent, it can shape micro-turnout. TX-23’s geography is vast, but digital reach can compress distance.
MattyO is betting that creator-driven enthusiasm will matter.
And then there’s the police-records subplot. Whether fair or not, MattyO argues that linking sealed files and a prior endorsement creates “accusations of favoritism.” He believes that corrodes trust among exactly the voters Gonzales needs to keep.
MattyO’s conclusion is straightforward: given the prior margin, the nature of the allegations, and the online energy, Brandon Herrera’s comeback bid is gaining steam.
He says the scandal “probably” tanks Gonzales’s odds in the primary – and he openly roots for Herrera to win, citing the Second Amendment as his reason.
My read: this race is now about tempo and transparency. If the story stalls in sealed files and no-comments, MattyO’s momentum thesis grows stronger by the day. If facts land cleanly and credibly, there’s still a path for an incumbent to hang on – but it’s narrower than it was a month ago.
Either way, the contest just became a test of trust. And in a runoff decided by a few hundred votes last time, trust may be the only metric that matters.
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Growing up in the Pacific Northwest, John developed a love for the great outdoors early on. With years of experience as a wilderness guide, he’s navigated rugged terrains and unpredictable weather patterns. John is also an avid hunter and fisherman who believes in sustainable living. His focus on practical survival skills, from building shelters to purifying water, reflects his passion for preparedness. When he’s not out in the wild, you can find him sharing his knowledge through writing, hoping to inspire others to embrace self-reliance.