Real estate and economy analyst Michael Bordenaro says the latest signals from Home Depot and Walmart deserve close attention, because they are showing how Americans are changing the way they spend money as financial pressure keeps building.
In his recent video, Bordenaro argued that the warnings coming from both companies are not random corporate talking points. In his view, they are real-time indicators of what households are doing when budgets get tight: pulling back on optional purchases, hunting for value, and postponing bigger financial decisions they no longer feel comfortable making.
That is what makes these warnings important.
When a company like Home Depot says people are spending less on remodeling and more on basic maintenance, Bordenaro sees that as a sign of economic stress. And when Walmart keeps drawing in more shoppers, including higher-income ones, he says that should not automatically be read as a sign of strength. It may actually mean more households are trying to cut costs anywhere they still can.
That is the broader theme running through his analysis. He does not describe the economy as falling off a cliff in one sudden moment. Instead, he says it looks more like a gradual deterioration, with more categories of consumer life weakening at the same time.
Home Depot Is Seeing People Fix What They Have Instead of Buying New
Bordenaro starts with Home Depot, and he says the company is picking up on a clear and troubling shift in consumer behavior.
According to him, Home Depot is seeing Americans pull back on non-essential purchases, especially bigger optional upgrades such as appliances. He says those purchases are often delayed unless something breaks completely, because people either buy them when they absolutely have to or when they feel they have enough extra money to improve their homes without stress.
Right now, Bordenaro says that extra money does not seem to be there for many households.
Instead of replacing items, he says people are choosing to repair and maintain what they already own. He points to spending on plumbing fixes, electrical repairs, and smaller household maintenance as evidence that families are trying to stretch the life of appliances and home systems for as long as possible.
He says that is classic downturn behavior.
In Bordenaro’s telling, it is the financial equivalent of hunkering down. Households preserve what works, avoid unnecessary spending, and put off any project that can wait. That may sound practical, and in a way it is, but it also suggests that people do not feel secure enough to spend the way they once did.
He connects that directly to broader uncertainty over inflation, affordability, and what he calls a weak job market. According to Bordenaro, the Home Depot chief executive is also seeing a big slowdown in remodeling activity, which matters because home renovation spending had remained relatively strong through and after the pandemic period.
Now, he says, even that cushion is fading.
Remodeling Slowdown Is Becoming a Bigger Economic Signal
Bordenaro argues that the drop in remodeling activity should not be brushed off as a simple case of people already having finished projects a few years ago.
He acknowledges that some homeowners did renovate when costs were lower, and that naturally reduces future demand for a while. But he says that explanation only goes so far, because people are always buying homes, moving into older properties, or living in places that still need work.
That is why he believes the slowdown now points to a more serious affordability problem.
He says Home Depot is seeing consumers spend $22 billion less than expected, and he highlights categories such as bathrooms, flooring, kitchens, and blinds as areas where spending has weakened. In his view, those are precisely the kinds of purchases that get delayed when households are being forced to prioritize essentials.
The logic there is pretty straightforward.
If your kitchen still functions, your toilet still works, and your floors are not failing under your feet, those upgrades become easy to postpone when the grocery bill, insurance bill, and utility bill are all heading in the wrong direction. Bordenaro says people are making that tradeoff more and more often.
He also ties the slowdown in renovations to the housing market itself.
According to Bordenaro, home sales are sitting at over 30-year lows, and if fewer people are moving, fewer people are also taking on the expensive upgrades that often come with a move. He says even Home Depot does not expect this environment to improve much through 2026 unless there is a meaningful economic recovery.
That is a sobering point.
A weak housing market does not only hurt builders and agents. It tends to ripple outward into renovation work, appliance demand, home-related retail, and all the contractors and suppliers tied to those purchases.
Walmart’s Growth May Be a Stress Signal, Not a Comfort Story
After turning to Home Depot, Bordenaro shifts to Walmart, and this is where his argument gets especially interesting.
He says Walmart remains one of the clearest indicators of how lower- and middle-income households are behaving, simply because that is the company’s traditional customer base. But what stands out now, according to Bordenaro, is that higher-income shoppers are increasingly turning to Walmart too.
He says that trend has been building for over a year and continues to deepen.
Bordenaro’s interpretation is that this is not a feel-good retail success story. It is a sign that people across more income brackets are trying to save money because so much of their income is already being consumed by other expenses.
That point is worth sitting with for a second.
A family can have a relatively high income on paper and still feel squeezed if housing, taxes, insurance, maintenance, utilities, healthcare, and transportation are eating up most of it. Bordenaro uses that framework to explain why even wealthier-looking households may be shifting toward discount retailers.
He says this is why Walmart doing well should not automatically be treated as proof that everything is fine.
In his view, it can mean the opposite. More shoppers turning to value chains may reflect more stress in the wider economy, not less. He also points to the expansion of discount retail more generally, mentioning stores such as Aldi as examples of how demand for low-cost shopping is continuing to grow rather than shrink.
That trend feels especially telling because it suggests the squeeze is not limited to one narrow slice of consumers.
Dynamic Pricing and the Risk of “Value” Getting Harder to Find
Bordenaro also raises a more specific concern about Walmart and other retailers: digital shelf tags and the potential for dynamic pricing.
He says Walmart has already rolled out digital pricing systems in around 2,300 stores, which allows prices to be updated almost instantly. In theory, that gives stores far more flexibility. In practice, Bordenaro worries it opens the door to algorithm-driven pricing that can vary by zip code, local demand, and what the retailer believes shoppers are willing to pay.
He is blunt about how he sees that risk.
According to Bordenaro, the more consumers flock to stores searching for value, the more they may eventually find that value slipping away if algorithms discover that certain areas will tolerate higher prices. He says retailers are unlikely to use that technology mainly to lower prices out of generosity. They are more likely to use it to push pricing as far as consumers will accept.
That is one of the more striking parts of his analysis, and it is not hard to see why it worries him.
A shopper can look at a shelf, assume a price is stable, and walk to the register without knowing whether that price has already changed. Bordenaro says that feels wrong and potentially deceptive, and he argues that retailers should not be allowed to change prices that fluidly once shoppers are inside the store.
Even if one does not go as far as he does on regulation, the concern is understandable.
When consumers are already under pressure, the idea that even discount shopping may become more personalized and opportunistic is not exactly reassuring.
Car Debt, Housing Stress, and the Bigger Affordability Problem
Bordenaro does not stop with retail spending. He ties the same affordability squeeze into cars, housing, and monthly debt more broadly.
He says average new-car prices are now around $50,000, with average monthly payments around $775 before adding insurance, gas, and repairs. More than 20 percent of new-car buyers, he says, are paying over $1,000 a month, which he calls an all-time high. He also points to average loan terms of around 70 months, showing how much longer buyers are stretching debt to make payments look manageable.
In his view, those car payments are now directly interfering with housing affordability.
He explains that heavy car debt can reduce mortgage eligibility because of debt-to-income rules. A buyer who might otherwise qualify for a certain home can be pushed out of the market, or pushed into a much cheaper home, once a big auto payment is added to the monthly debt load.
That is a practical point, and a powerful one.
Bordenaro says every $1,000 in monthly debt can reduce buying power by roughly $150,000 to $170,000 depending on rates. If that estimate is even roughly right, then large car payments are not just a transportation problem. They are a housing-market problem too.
He folds HOA costs into this same picture.
According to Bordenaro, millions of Americans now pay more than $6,000 a year in HOA fees, and many have seen those charges climb sharply over the past three years. He notes that fees are being driven higher by aging buildings, deferred maintenance, and especially, in places like Florida, rising insurance costs.
All of that adds up to the same conclusion in his analysis: affordability is still moving in the wrong direction.
Bordenaro Sees a Long Squeeze, Not a Quick Recovery
By the end of his video, Michael Bordenaro’s view is pretty clear.
He believes the warnings from Walmart and Home Depot are connected to the same larger problem: people are being squeezed from too many directions at once. Housing is expensive, cars are expensive, insurance is expensive, HOA fees are rising, and ordinary shopping behavior is now shifting in ways that suggest families are preserving cash wherever possible.
That does not mean a dramatic crash is unfolding overnight.
Bordenaro says this looks more like a slow erosion, where demand weakens, spending becomes more defensive, and markets such as housing get stuck because too many consumers are operating on thin financial margins. He argues that without either meaningful deflation in everyday costs or a strong jump in incomes, it is hard to see how conditions improve quickly.
That is probably the part of his analysis that lands hardest.
This is not really a story about one store or one quarter’s sales. It is about what happens when millions of people stop upgrading, stop replacing, start bargain-hunting harder, and begin organizing their lives around endurance instead of growth. In that kind of economy, Home Depot and Walmart are not just retailers. They become mirrors.
And right now, the reflection Bordenaro sees is not a healthy one.
Raised in a small Arizona town, Kevin grew up surrounded by rugged desert landscapes and a family of hunters. His background in competitive shooting and firearms training has made him an authority on self-defense and gun safety. A certified firearms instructor, Kevin teaches others how to properly handle and maintain their weapons, whether for hunting, home defense, or survival situations. His writing focuses on responsible gun ownership, marksmanship, and the role of firearms in personal preparedness.
