During a recent fact-check segment on MSNBC’s Morning Joe, economic analyst Steve Rattner took a hard look at President Donald Trump’s claims from a Meet the Press interview. Trump insisted that prices for gas, oil, and groceries had fallen significantly during his first months in office. But according to Rattner, that’s simply not what the data says.
Using Consumer Price Index data, Rattner showed that in Trump’s first three months, overall prices rose by 0.6%. Under Biden, the increase was slightly higher at 0.9%. But when it came to grocery prices, the story flipped – they rose faster under Trump than they did under Biden, climbing nearly 1% during Trump’s first quarter, compared to 0.8% under Biden.
This part is especially fascinating because groceries are one of the most noticeable inflation markers for everyday people. So when someone claims groceries got cheaper when they didn’t, people feel that gap. Rattner emphasized how misleading it is to present the opposite of what the numbers show.
Gas Prices Aren’t Dropping Because of “Drill, Baby, Drill”
Trump pointed to falling gas prices and credited his pro-drilling energy stance. He even brought back his signature phrase, “Drill, baby, drill,” claiming it was responsible for the cost drops. But Rattner explained that drilling wasn’t the reason at all. Instead, two key forces were driving prices down: increased oil output by OPEC, and weakening economic forecasts, which signal to oil markets that demand might fall. When demand is expected to drop, so do prices.
In fact, Rattner went on to call Trump’s drilling narrative “absolutely counter to the facts.” That kind of direct language stood out. It wasn’t just disagreement – it was blunt correction, and it came with supporting charts and reasoning. It’s always refreshing when an analyst puts the brakes on political storytelling with data.
Inflation Expectations Have Gotten Worse
Beyond actual price numbers, Rattner raised concern about inflation expectations. He said these are just as important because if people think prices will keep going up, they act accordingly – changing how they spend, save, and even negotiate pay. He pointed out that in December, consumers expected inflation around 2.8%, but by the time of the segment, expectations had jumped to 6.5%.
This part hits at something deeper: perception becomes reality. Whether or not Trump or Biden controls inflation entirely, people’s trust in economic stability plays a huge role. And the growing distrust, no matter the president, is a red flag.
Trump Got the Trade Deficit Numbers Wrong – Again
One of Trump’s boldest claims was that the U.S. was losing $5-6 billion a day under Biden on trade deficits. He said he had lowered that number during his term. But Rattner flatly refuted that. According to him, 2024’s trade deficit stood closer to $2.5 billion a day, less than half of Trump’s claim. Even more interesting, he showed charts indicating the trade deficit actually grew under Trump, largely because companies rushed to import goods before his tariffs kicked in.
Rattner compared buying imports to buying a t-shirt: “If I buy a Morning Joe t-shirt for $20, have I lost $20? No – I got something in return.” It was a simple analogy, but it drove home the point: trade deficits aren’t inherently bad, and they’re not like flushing money down the drain.
Auto Industry Didn’t Celebrate Trump’s Tariffs
Trump also said the car industry would thrive thanks to his tariffs. But Rattner showed the opposite. Ford, GM, and Stellantis (formerly Chrysler) all saw stock drops after the tariffs were announced. Ford estimated losses of $1.5 billion from the tariffs, and GM projected $2-3 billion in added costs.
Rattner noted that none of the major carmakers saw Trump’s plan as a windfall. If anything, they braced for tighter margins and increased consumer prices. In fact, right after the tariff announcements, Ford raised prices on three of its best-selling vehicles. That’s not what winning looks like for car buyers – or for the manufacturers.
Trump’s Tax Hike Warning Lacks Math
Trump warned in the interview that if his 2017 tax cuts aren’t extended, Americans will face a “68% tax increase.” Rattner couldn’t let that one slide. He said, “God only knows what he’s talking about.” The real number? Depending on income, the tax hike would range between $74 and $36,000 per year, or about 6-18% increases, not 68%. And even then, that only applies if the Trump-era tax cuts expire, which Biden has proposed preserving for most Americans, except the very rich.
This is one of those moments where it feels like Trump took a calculator, threw it out the window, and decided to go with a scare number. And it works – until someone like Rattner shows up with actual figures and calmly explains what’s real.
Uncertainty Is Very Real – And Trump Helped Create It
Trump downplayed concerns about economic uncertainty, calling it “fake news.” But Rattner had data for that too. He presented the Economic Uncertainty Index, which has tracked volatility since 1985. The index spiked massively during COVID (no surprise), but the second-largest spike? Under Trump, during his term.
He also pointed to real-world consequences: companies like Mattel, Skechers, Harley-Davidson, and UPS have all stopped issuing financial guidance because the future is too unclear. That’s not a partisan talking point – it’s coming from the market itself.
More Tariffs Could Hurt Growth, Not Help
The show wrapped with concerns over Trump’s potential new tariff plans. If enacted, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned, they could raise inflation, slow growth, and increase unemployment. Rattner echoed those worries, noting that while Trump pressures the Fed to cut interest rates, Powell has made clear he won’t do that until inflation hits 2% – which it hasn’t.
This puts the Fed in a tough spot. They can’t cut rates just because Trump says to. At the same time, inflation might rise again if tariffs go into effect. It’s a recipe for what economists call stagflation: rising prices, low growth, and no way to fix it without causing more pain.
The Federal Debt Clock Is Ticking Loudly
Another sobering moment came near the end of the segment, when the Morning Joe team discussed the federal debt. It’s now over $36 trillion, and could hit $50 trillion in the next decade if current proposals, especially tax cuts, go through. Rattner and host Joe Scarborough warned that passing massive tax cuts while entitlement costs and defense spending continue to rise is a “fiscal cliff in slow motion.”
This part really hit home. It’s not flashy like gas prices or food costs, but it’s the long-term issue that could cripple everything else. You can almost hear the clock ticking in the background.
Why This Fact Check Mattered
This wasn’t just a boring chart rundown. Rattner used hard numbers to push back against narratives – and that’s important. In election years especially, facts get buried under slogans. Having someone calmly break it down, with no yelling or insults, felt like a much-needed dose of clarity.
And let’s be honest: no president gets everything right. But when someone claims they did the impossible, it’s fair to ask for proof. Rattner brought the receipts.
Numbers Over Noise
What made this segment so effective is how relatable it was. When Rattner explained trade with a $20 t-shirt or broke down groceries by the month, it made complex economics feel human. That’s how you cut through the noise.
And in a world of viral soundbites and rage tweets, facts that stick to the basics still matter. Especially when they come with a side of charts and a bit of good humor.
The Economy Is Complicated – So Let’s Treat It That Way
Steve Rattner’s fact-check wasn’t about politics – it was about numbers. And the takeaway was simple: check the math before making big claims. Prices, deficits, drilling, taxes – they’re all too important to reduce to slogans. And if we want real answers, we need more segments like this.
As voters, we owe it to ourselves to go beyond the headlines. Because when it comes to the economy, it’s not just about who talks louder – it’s about who’s actually right.
Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.
