According to real estate analyst Nicholas Gerli of Reventure Consulting, the U.S. housing market is now deep into what he calls the “second stage” of the housing crash. In a recent video, Gerli paints a stark picture: housing inventory is ballooning across major metro areas, and home prices are starting to fall fast. Sellers are slashing prices, buyers are stepping back, and several boomtowns from just a few years ago are now ground zero for a major correction.
Gerli’s warning is simple: If you’re in the market to buy a house in one of these ten cities, wait. Prices aren’t done falling. In fact, in some places, this could be just the beginning. Here’s the list of the 10 cities most at risk, in descending order, with commentary directly from Gerli – and a little extra perspective from us.
10. Nashville, Tennessee
Nashville is experiencing a flood of housing inventory. Gerli says the number of homes for sale has jumped over 400% in the past year, reaching levels not seen in a decade. With over 10,000 homes on the market, price declines are already happening, especially in the center and northern parts of the metro.
What makes this even more alarming is how much prices had risen previously. Nashville’s decade-long housing boom has created a steep cliff, and now that buyer demand has dried up, there’s a long way to fall. Gerli calls it a prime example of a “boomtown correction.”
9. Salt Lake City, Utah
Salt Lake City followed a similar trajectory. People fled to it during the pandemic, seeking open space and affordable homes. But now, according to Gerli, the party’s over. Inventory has spiked to over 3,000 homes, and the city is forecast to see a 6% price drop in the next year.
Salt Lake’s market was once red hot – now it’s cooling fast. “People just aren’t moving there anymore,” Gerli notes. And with fewer buyers and still-inflated prices, Salt Lake is entering correction territory, fast.
8. Phoenix, Arizona
Phoenix is no stranger to real estate drama, but the current situation is especially stark. Gerli reports that there are now over 20,000 homes for sale in the city – more than double the inventory from two years ago. Prices have already fallen 7.8% from their peak in 2022, and more cuts are likely on the way.
The appeal of Phoenix during the pandemic – affordable homes and warm weather – has started to fade. “It’s really, really hot,” Gerli jokes, but it’s no laughing matter for homeowners seeing their equity disappear. Inbound migration has dropped a staggering 70%, gutting demand.
7. Jacksonville, Florida
Jacksonville’s inventory is spiking too, with nearly 10,000 homes now on the market. Prices are already down 2% year-over-year, and in the heart of the metro, Gerli says some neighborhoods have seen values fall as much as 20%.
One of the most startling facts? Month-over-month declines in Jacksonville are annualizing to a rate of 4.5%. According to Gerli, this city could see even steeper declines in the near future, especially in overbuilt central areas.
6. San Antonio, Texas
San Antonio has already seen a 6.2% drop in home values since mid-2022. But this might just be the beginning. With nearly 13,000 resale homes now on the market, Gerli warns that San Antonio could eventually see a 20–25% correction if current trends continue.
The spike in supply is the biggest red flag here. “When you see that type of inventory surge,” Gerli says, “it’s a signal of a softening market.” And this one is softening fast.
5. Orlando, Florida
Despite being a top tourist destination, Orlando’s housing market isn’t feeling the love. Inventory is up to 14,000 homes, and prices have dropped 2% year-over-year, with a forecasted 7.1% drop on the way.
That’s one of the biggest downward forecasts in Gerli’s entire list. He notes that while some locals insist prices aren’t falling, the data tells a different story. “The crash is already happening,” he says. “It’s just not getting talked about.”
4. Dallas, Texas
Dallas might be the biggest surprise on the list, mainly because it’s seen as a strong job market and magnet for transplants. But even Dallas isn’t immune. Gerli says the city is 24% overvalued overall, with some northern suburbs like Frisco and Plano still 27–45% overvalued.
Dallas currently has nearly 30,000 homes on the resale market – the most in over a decade. That’s a huge supply glut, and Gerli cautions buyers: “It’s not the time to jump in.” North Dallas in particular has serious downside ahead.
3. Tampa, Florida
Tampa has already begun to decline. Prices are down 4% year-over-year, and the month-over-month decline is accelerating at an annualized rate of over 7%. Gerli calls it one of the most concerning markets right now, with over 20,000 homes on the market – nearly double the normal level for May.
Tampa’s boom during COVID has turned into a bust. “If these current monthly declines hold,” Gerli warns, “Tampa could be facing a major drop in the next year.”
2. Austin, Texas
Austin has already been through a rough correction – home values have dropped over 20% since their peak. But Gerli says the market’s not done falling yet. While Travis County is now only 4.7% overvalued (down from 48% at the peak), values could still decline another 8% in the next 12 months.
Still, there’s a silver lining. Gerli says Austin could become a “buy” in about six months, as most of the correction may already be priced in. If you’re looking to buy there, patience could pay off.
1. Denver, Colorado
Denver takes the top spot as the most concerning housing market right now. Inventory has doubled to over 12,000 homes – far beyond the normal level for this time of year. Yet, prices have only dipped 1% so far.
That’s about to change. Gerli predicts a sharp decline, with a 9.1% drop forecasted over the next year. Some zip codes are expected to fall by 11%. “This market is crashing in real time,” he warns. And the worst part? Many locals still have no idea.
Honorable Mentions Deserve a Close Look
Gerli also highlighted three cities just outside the top 10 that are still worth watching: Seattle, San Francisco, and Tucson. In each of these metros, inventory is rising fast, and price drops are already starting. Seattle and San Francisco are especially vulnerable due to tech sector layoffs and remote work trends flattening demand.
Why This Is Happening – and Why It Matters
This crash isn’t like 2008. There’s no subprime mortgage mess this time. But what we do have is a perfect storm: inflated home values, high mortgage rates, too much inventory, and suddenly very cautious buyers. As Gerli puts it, “Buyers are gone. Sellers are getting nervous.”
His message is clear – don’t buy into hype, and don’t rush into the market just because prices fell a little. Instead, watch the data closely. Overvaluation rates and 12-month forecasts are key to understanding how much risk you’re taking if you buy now.
When to Buy?
If you’re planning to buy in one of these cities, timing will be everything. Gerli recommends tracking two things: 1) how overvalued your local market is, and 2) how much prices are forecast to drop in the next year. In many places, especially Austin and possibly Denver, waiting six more months could mean tens of thousands saved.
This housing correction isn’t just theoretical – it’s here. As Gerli says, “This isn’t speculative anymore. It’s happening in real time.”
If you’re a homebuyer, this could be your moment to be patient and smart.
Growing up in the Pacific Northwest, John developed a love for the great outdoors early on. With years of experience as a wilderness guide, he’s navigated rugged terrains and unpredictable weather patterns. John is also an avid hunter and fisherman who believes in sustainable living. His focus on practical survival skills, from building shelters to purifying water, reflects his passion for preparedness. When he’s not out in the wild, you can find him sharing his knowledge through writing, hoping to inspire others to embrace self-reliance.