According to housing analyst Nicholas Gerli of Reventure Consulting, New York is witnessing an unexpected boom in 2025, not because people are leaving, but because they’re coming back. In his latest video, Gerli described what he’s calling a “reverse migration” trend, where people are leaving southern states like Florida and California and relocating to the Northeast and Midwest, with New York at the forefront of this shift. This movement, Gerli says, is rewriting everything we thought we knew about America’s housing market.
During the pandemic, Americans left high-tax, cold-weather states in massive numbers. But that trend is quickly unraveling. In 2022, nearly 900,000 people moved to the South. By 2024, that number dropped to below 500,000. In 2025, Gerli expects it to fall even further. “The narrative has flipped,” he explained. “People are no longer just going south for sunshine – they’re now coming back north for safety, affordability, and stability.”
Bidding Wars Are Back in Upstate New York
Gerli reports that homes in areas like Albany and Columbia County, New York, are flying off the market. “In places like Valatie, days on market have dropped from 90 to just 19,” he said. “That’s a faster pace than almost anywhere in the country.” Even more surprising, he said, are the bidding wars happening in Rochester, Syracuse, and parts of Long Island. Inventory is down across the board – Albany’s housing supply is down 50% from the long-term average.
And this isn’t just about demand. It’s about lack of supply. Gerli explains that while Florida has over 180,000 homes for sale, the entire Northeast, nine states combined, has just 85,000. That’s less than half, despite a much larger population base. The result? Even modest homes in smaller towns are attracting multiple offers and driving prices higher.
Affordability Crisis Shifts Northward
What’s driving people back to the Northeast? One reason is affordability – ironically, the same factor that drove people away in the first place. In 2020, many New Yorkers could sell their homes and buy two or three properties in places like Florida or Tennessee. But now, as Gerli points out, “That equation no longer works.”
Gerli says people are discovering that a “cheap” home in Florida or Texas isn’t so cheap anymore. Many of those markets have seen explosive price growth since 2020, and locals are realizing they can no longer afford to buy there. “I’ve met people in New York who said they tried to move to Florida – but they came back because they simply couldn’t afford a decent house,” he explained.
The Rise of the Climate Safe Haven
But it’s not just about dollars and cents. Gerli highlights a more controversial reason for the migration shift: climate change. More specifically, the perception that the Northeast and Midwest are becoming safer havens from extreme weather. “People from California and Florida are moving to upstate New York because they believe it will be more livable in the long run,” he said.
Gerli has met dozens of people at open houses in Columbia County who cite climate concerns as a main reason for relocating. Whether or not you believe in climate change, there’s no denying that wildfire seasons, hurricanes, and droughts have worsened in many southern and western states. And that perception alone is enough to shift migration patterns.
Florida’s Housing Market Now Flooded With Listings
While New York struggles with too few homes for sale, Florida is seeing the opposite problem. Inventory in parts of the Sunshine State has surged. In Lakeland, Ocala, and Tampa, listings are up 80% to 100% compared to normal. Gerli says this imbalance will only widen as more people leave and fewer people move in.
He also points out that Florida’s economy is deeply tied to real estate. About 25% of Florida’s GDP comes from residential property markets. That means a housing downturn there could ripple into broader economic problems. “There’s a whole segment of the Florida population who just doesn’t want to admit prices are falling,” Gerli said.
Tax Policy May Accelerate the Trend
An upcoming change in federal tax policy could make things even more favorable for states like New York. Gerli highlighted a proposal in Congress to raise the SALT deduction cap from $10,000 to $40,000. This would allow homeowners in high-tax states to deduct more of their property taxes on federal returns.
“This could supercharge the housing markets in places like New York, Illinois, and Connecticut,” Gerli explained. “It would effectively reduce the cost of owning expensive homes in these places by thousands of dollars per year.” In other words, a move many thought financially impractical could soon become economically smart.
Even Chicago is Seeing a Comeback
It’s not just New York. Gerli says the trend is spreading across the Midwest. In suburban Chicago counties like DuPage and Lake, inventory is down 50%. “Bidding wars are still happening in these areas,” he noted. “If I had told you three years ago that Chicago would be hot while Florida was crashing, you’d have thought I was nuts – but here we are.”
This regional divergence is breaking every rule of the pandemic housing playbook. And it raises serious questions about how Americans now evaluate where they want to live. Is warmth still king? Or are people looking for long-term security, lower insurance costs, and fewer natural disasters?
A Shift in Personal Values and Preferences
Gerli also thinks we’re seeing a generational change in mindset. “People just want something different now,” he said. “They’re looking for places with history, walkable towns, better climate stability – even if it means putting up with cold winters and higher taxes.”
As someone who grew up in Valatie, New York, Gerli says it’s strange but fascinating to see his hometown booming again. The town, founded in 1665, is full of brick buildings and historical homes. “These places have character,” he said. “It’s not just another cookie-cutter subdivision 5 feet from your neighbor.”
This Isn’t Just a Blip
From my perspective, what makes this report so compelling is how counterintuitive it is. We’ve spent years hearing about the mass exodus from high-tax states. That narrative isn’t just being questioned – it’s being flipped. People aren’t just tolerating the Northeast again – they’re choosing it, actively, and in large numbers.
That tells me this isn’t just a temporary correction. It’s a long-term reshaping of American geography. If climate, taxes, and affordability keep moving the way they are, this reversal could be just the beginning of a much bigger shift in where Americans live – and where they want to build their futures.
Why You Should Be Watching New York Now
Gerli believes that the next five years will see continued outperformance in the Northeast and Midwest, both in home prices and broader economic growth. “These regions will do better,” he said. “The South and Mountain West will likely lag behind.”
For homebuyers, this means adjusting your expectations. Markets like Albany and Rochester may not have sounded exciting in the past, but today, they’re among the hottest in the country. And if you’re in the market for a house, it’s time to start thinking differently. Where once everyone wanted sun and low taxes, many now want stability and community – even if that comes with snow.
The Housing Map Is Being Redrawn
Nicholas Gerli’s message is clear: America’s housing market is entering a new era, and New York is at the center of it. With low inventory, rising prices, and a surge of newcomers driven by affordability and climate fears, the Empire State may just be the nation’s next big housing success story.
It’s a twist no one saw coming. But if Gerli is right, and the data says he might be, then New York isn’t just surviving post-pandemic migration trends. It’s thriving. And as strange as it sounds, the future of American housing might just lie in its oldest towns.
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The article New York Becomes a ‘Climate Safe Haven’ as Residents Flee Florida and California first appeared on Survival World.
Growing up in the Pacific Northwest, John developed a love for the great outdoors early on. With years of experience as a wilderness guide, he’s navigated rugged terrains and unpredictable weather patterns. John is also an avid hunter and fisherman who believes in sustainable living. His focus on practical survival skills, from building shelters to purifying water, reflects his passion for preparedness. When he’s not out in the wild, you can find him sharing his knowledge through writing, hoping to inspire others to embrace self-reliance.
