According to woodworking YouTuber Dave from DIY with Dave, the White House has imposed a 10% tariff on foreign softwood lumber and 25% on certain wood products like kitchen cabinets, vanities, and upholstered wooden furniture.
He says those measures started October 14, 2025, with steeper rates slated for January 1, 2026 – 50% on cabinets/vanities and 30% on upholstered wooden goods.
Dave explains the official logic in the proclamation: national security.
The administration argues tariffs will “strengthen supply chains,” “bolster industrial resilience,” and expand domestic capacity enough to satisfy U.S. consumption and even boost exports.
He also puts the new levies in context. The U.S. has slapped lumber tariffs on Canada off and on since the 1980s, and most presidents – except Bill Clinton – have used some form of restriction.
What’s new, Dave says, is the breadth.
These aren’t just Canada-specific or lumber-only; they layer onto “nearly every product from nearly every country,” which makes the math more complicated at the store aisle.
Layering Tariffs on Tariffs
Dave runs through a quick accounting. Canada’s softwood is already around 35% and exempt from the new lumber tariff, but not from the furniture and cabinet hikes.
Other countries get stacked treatment. If Mexico faces a 15% general tariff, then softwood lumber from Mexico now effectively comes in at 25% (15% general + 10% lumber).
He notes that imports provide about 30% of the lumber Americans use, and Canada is roughly 40% of that import slice. The rest is spread across China, Brazil, Mexico, Germany, Vietnam, and others, with rates and exemptions varying by country and product.
Dave warns that softwood is the focus here, while plywood and other products are treated differently in customs codes.
The bottom line, though, is simple: foreign wood gets pricier, and that ripple will eventually show up somewhere.
Prices Haven’t Spiked – Yet
Here’s where Dave’s take gets interesting. He says retail lumber prices over the last year have been fairly steady in his tracking, despite several rounds of tariffs already on the books.
Futures look jumpier, but he argues the chart scale can exaggerate volatility if you don’t zoom out. Compared to the wild swings of 2020–2021, recent action is calmer.
So why no shock at the big-box register? Dave offers three reasons: some importers and retailers are eating part of the cost, some buyers are shifting to domestic supply, and – most importantly – demand is weak.
He points to housing starts near a five-year low as the anchor. With construction subdued, consumers simply won’t pay up, which restrains price pass-through even as costs rise.
But he also issues a caution. A number of mills have closed in recent years, and if housing re-accelerates, a tight domestic supply could collide with tariff-inflated imports, setting the stage for fast price increases.
Hardwood Mills to Washington: We Need Help
On the ground, the pressure looks different.
In a WKRN News report, Tori Gessner says dozens of Tennessee hardwood businesses are asking the administration for monetary relief to offset losses from retaliatory tariffs abroad.
Gessner interviews Brandon Clark of Clark Lumber Company / Clark Hardwoods, who describes a market gripped by uncertainty.
“Customers aren’t buying nearly as much,” he says, and his exports to China have fallen from 40% of volume in 2017 to 7% today.
“It’s very difficult to be profitable,” Clark adds, noting mills are closing every week. More than 450 hardwood mills, including nearly 40 in Tennessee, signed a letter seeking inclusion in any tariff relief programs.
Clark is measured but blunt. He hopes national policies play out well for the country, but says the hardwood sector risks being a casualty if relief doesn’t arrive soon.
WKRN’s anchors sum up the scale. Industry experts estimate the U.S. hardwood sector has lost $9 billion in commercial opportunity since the 2018 trade war, and unlike farmers, hardwood producers weren’t included in those earlier relief packages.
“We’re Suffering”: Another Mill’s View From the Floor
A WATE 6 On Your Side segment by Naomi Hillmer spotlights Chris Keziah, owner and president of Oak Ridge Hardwoods.
He calls lumber and hardwood an export-dependent industry that became heavily concentrated in China, only to be squeezed by tariffs and trade frictions.
Keziah says his company’s been operating since 1976, but to make it to next year, they’re asking the White House for aid similar to what soybean farmers received.
“We’re one of the few industries that still sells our product at 1990s or 2000s prices,” he says, while fuel, insurance, and electricity keep climbing.
“The reality is we’re suffering, and we need help,” Keziah says, warning that mill closures scatter skilled labor into other sectors, making recovery harder if demand returns.
He also points out a civic cost: when mills fail, small towns lose stable paychecks, and weaker communities get hit first and hardest.
WATE’s anchors add the context. This isn’t the first tariff-driven slump; Keziah’s business took a hit in 2018 and has been on a downward trend since.
Tariffs, Protectionism, and the Supreme Court Wild Card
Back in his breakdown, Dave zooms out to protectionism as a policy framework. He lists the promised benefits – jobs, security, bargaining leverage – and the common hazards: higher prices, less innovation, retaliation, misallocated capital.
He gives a success story – South Korea’s auto industry in the 1980s, and the cautionary tales – Smoot-Hawley in the 1930s and Argentina in the early 2000s.
His read on lumber is skeptical: even if capacity expands, automation means fewer new jobs, and logging expansions can carry environmental tradeoffs without careful oversight.
Dave also flags a legal twist. Because the tariffs were imposed under emergency powers (IEEPA) – initially tied to a fentanyl emergency – there’s a case headed to the Supreme Court this November that could determine whether most of these tariffs stand or get rescinded.
If the Court invalidates them, Dave says, most of the new tariffs would fall, though the ~35% Canadian softwood duty – rooted in a different authority – would likely remain.
If the Court upholds them, the presidency gains broader trade leverage, and these wood tariffs stay in place.
The Calm Before the Build Season
Right now, the market’s quiet because housing is quiet. That’s masking the true cost of the new tariff stack, as retailers absorb and buyers delay.
But two things can flip the board in a hurry. If starts rebound in spring, and mills remain closed or constrained, we’ll see supply chase demand into a wall of tariff friction – the exact recipe for a price spike.
On the hardwood side, the squeeze is already visible. Export channels shrank, retaliation bit hard, and relief never quite reached this corner of the economy.
I don’t think the question is whether tariffs can nudge domestic production. They can. The test is whether the policy sequence – from tariffs, to financing, to permitting, to workforce, to infrastructure – is coherent enough to expand supply before demand returns in force.
If it isn’t, the pain shows up later, and it shows up everywhere – from a builder’s takeoff sheet to a homeowner’s backyard deck.
The letters that Gessner and Hillmer describe aren’t calls to unwind the entire policy.
They’re pleas for targeted relief so mills can bridge this period without shedding people or capacity.
A smart package would be temporary and narrow: working-capital support for export-hit mills, help retooling toward domestic specs, and matched funding for automation that preserves throughput while retraining skilled operators.
Pair that with predictable permitting for sustainable harvests, and you keep fiber flowing without mortgaging the landscape.
That’s how you avoid turning tariffs into a one-way ratchet. You give businesses a path to adapt instead of a reason to auction.
Asking for a Lifeline
To summarize, Dave (DIY with Dave) reports that new 10% softwood and 25% wood-product tariffs took effect October 14, 2025, with higher rates coming January 1, 2026.
He says retail prices are steady for now, thanks to weak demand, some cost absorption, and domestic substitution, but warns that a housing uptick could expose tight supply and push prices up fast.
Tori Gessner (WKRN) documents Brandon Clark’s export drop to China—from 40% to 7%—and a letter signed by 450+ hardwood mills seeking tariff relief, after losing an estimated $9 billion in opportunity since 2018.
Naomi Hillmer (WATE) reports Chris Keziah’s plea that mills are “suffering,” selling at 1990s/2000s prices while costs surge, with closures scattering skilled labor and weakening small communities.
Add it up, and the story is brittle. Tariffs are in place, legal review is imminent, construction is soft, and mills are asking for a lifeline before the next cycle hits.
If housing wakes up and mills aren’t ready, the sticker shock will be real.
If relief and planning arrive first, we might finally see a domestic expansion that keeps prices stable and workers on the job, which, in the end, is what both builders and mill towns are asking for.
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Ed spent his childhood in the backwoods of Maine, where harsh winters taught him the value of survival skills. With a background in bushcraft and off-grid living, Ed has honed his expertise in fire-making, hunting, and wild foraging. He writes from personal experience, sharing practical tips and hands-on techniques to thrive in any outdoor environment. Whether it’s primitive camping or full-scale survival, Ed’s advice is grounded in real-life challenges.