From $70K–$100K price tags to rising interest rates and shrinking middle-class budgets, the pickup truck market is about to collapse

Truck restoration expert Jody Sellers says the pickup truck market is heading toward a serious reckoning, and in his view, the warning signs look uncomfortably similar to the kind of financial strain many Americans saw before the 2008 housing collapse.

Sellers, host of the Rust Lovers Garage YouTube channel, said he began thinking harder about the truck market after seeing reports about repossessions, high prices, long-term financing, and dealership lots filled with newer used vehicles.

As someone who works around old trucks, restores them, and follows the truck industry closely, Sellers said the numbers no longer make sense for ordinary buyers.

“You will not buy a reasonable pickup truck off a lot right now for 60 grand,” Sellers said.

The 2008 Comparison That Keeps Coming Back

Sellers began his warning by looking back to the housing collapse of 2008 through 2010, when he said he was raising a family and trying to understand how people with incomes similar to his were getting loans for homes two or three times larger than his own.

He said it was not jealousy that bothered him. He simply could not make the math work.

A friend later explained what was happening in the banking industry, Sellers said, and the answer was that lenders had lowered standards and were giving people loans they could manage in the short term but could not realistically carry over the long term.

“The chicken’s going to come home to roost,” Sellers said, describing what he believed was inevitable when people were stretched beyond their means.

Now, he sees a similar pattern in the vehicle market, especially with pickup trucks.

Sellers said he has been driving past dealerships in his area and noticing an unusual number of clean, newer vehicles sitting on the used side of lots. Some are one year old, two years old, or only a few years old, and they appear to be in excellent condition.

That made him ask a basic question: why are so many nearly new vehicles already back on lots?

Millions Of Repossessed Pickup Trucks

Sellers said one report that caught his attention claimed there were more than 3 million pickup truck repossessions in 2025.

“Think about that, guys,” Sellers said. “Three million of those people lost to the takeback man a pickup truck.”

He argued that these are not minor financial setbacks, because modern pickups often cost close to what he paid for his first house.

Sellers said the advertised price people see on television may suggest a truck can still be found for $38,000 or $41,000, but in his view, those ads usually refer to stripped-down base models, while the trucks shown on screen are often dressed up with features that push the price much higher.

“You can’t buy a dressed up truck for $40,000 anymore,” he said.

That matters because pickup trucks have long been tied to working-class life, farming, construction, small business, and everyday transportation in rural America. But if the typical truck now costs $70,000, $80,000, or even more, it starts to become less of a practical tool and more of a luxury item financed over nearly a decade.

Long Loans And Big Payments

Sellers said he does not understand ordinary buyers paying $70,000 or $80,000 for a pickup unless they truly have the money.

He said dealerships and lenders are now stretching loans for eight, nine, and sometimes even 10 years, which may bring the monthly payment down enough to close the sale but leaves buyers locked into debt for an entire decade.

For Sellers, that is one of the biggest danger signs.

He said he is approaching 60 years old and can look back at almost any 10-year period in his life and see major events that affected income, expenses, or family stability.

The idea of betting that nothing will go wrong for 10 years while paying on a vehicle that may be worn out before the loan ends, he said, is risky.

“You’re going to do that for an entire decade on a vehicle that’ll be completely worn out before you get to the end of the payments?” Sellers asked.

That is not just a truck problem. It is a household budget problem. A large truck payment, higher insurance, fuel, tires, oil, brakes, and repairs can leave families with very little room for emergencies.

Sellers estimated that a $1,000 monthly truck payment may really function more like a $1,400 monthly cost once fuel and operating expenses are averaged in over a year.

Dealership Math And The Payment Trap

Sellers warned that buyers should be careful when dealerships ask where they want their monthly payment to be.

He said that question can shift attention away from the full price of the truck and toward a monthly number that feels manageable.

According to Sellers, the dealership can often structure the deal to get the payment close to what the buyer wants, but then add products like paint protection, tire protection, warranties, and other extras.

He also talked about the difference between what he called the “buy rate” and the “sale rate” in financing. In his explanation, the buy rate is the interest rate a finance company gives for a customer, while the sale rate is the rate shown during paperwork, and the two may not be the same.

His broader point was simple: dealerships are businesses, and their goal is to make money.

Sellers said he is not claiming every dealership is bad, but he believes buyers need to understand the business model before signing anything.

“You are not buying a truck,” Sellers said, referring to the way modern financing works. “You are buying a membership to their business model.”

That is a strong line, but it gets at something many buyers feel after leaving the lot. The vehicle may be theirs, but the monthly payment, insurance bill, interest, and add-ons can shape their finances for years.

What Happens When Buyers Disappear?

Sellers said the truck market cannot continue cycling through buyers this way forever.

If millions of people lose trucks to repossession, their credit is damaged, which makes it harder for them to finance another vehicle at a decent rate. In a country where many people need a vehicle to get to work, that can create a deeper financial spiral.

“If you can’t get to work, you can’t do that,” Sellers said, referring to earning a paycheck and providing for a family.

That is one reason he worries the truck market is not only headed for lower prices, but also broader damage to manufacturers, suppliers, dealerships, and workers tied to the auto industry.

If enough buyers are priced out or burned by repossessions, demand can dry up. If demand dries up, lots fill up. If lots fill up, prices eventually have to move.

The problem is that the correction may not be painless. Sellers said he is concerned about the manufacturing side, the supplier side, and the ripple effects across the industry if the current model breaks.

Buy Used, Build Relationships, And Avoid The New-Truck Trap

Sellers urged viewers to avoid buying new trucks right now if they can.

His advice was not to stop driving or stop owning trucks, but to look for more affordable options through smaller, independent dealers with long histories in the community.

He said buyers should look for a local dealer who has been in business for decades, possibly a family-run operation that has survived because it treats people fairly.

“You’re not going to make it in the local market by sticking it to people,” Sellers said.

He suggested building a relationship with that dealer, explaining exactly what kind of truck is needed, and letting the dealer search auctions or contacts for the right vehicle.

Sellers said a higher-mileage truck can still be a good option if it has been maintained properly. He pointed to his own vehicles, including a Tahoe nearing 300,000 miles, a tow truck around 280,000 miles, and a shop truck around 180,000 miles.

His point was that maintenance costs on an older vehicle with a far lower payment can still be much easier to handle than a massive new-truck payment.

That advice may not work for everyone. Some people need newer vehicles for warranty coverage, business use, or reliability. But for many buyers, Sellers’ argument is worth considering: a shiny new truck can become a financial trap if the payment leaves no room for real life.

A Market Built On Strained Buyers

Sellers said he has friends who recently bought trucks in the $85,000 range, even after he tried to warn them not to do it.

He said if anything changes in their employment or the economy, those payments could become a major hardship.

That is the heart of his concern. The pickup truck market may look strong when people are still signing papers, but if those deals depend on stretched budgets, long loans, and buyers hoping nothing goes wrong, the strength may not be real.

It may simply be delayed trouble.

Sellers is not claiming to be an economist, and he said as much. He described himself as a “hillbilly” in North Carolina who likes to read, watch, and notice things.

But sometimes that kind of plain observation sees what corporate reports can miss. If ordinary people cannot afford the product anymore, the market eventually has to respond.

The modern pickup truck has become bigger, more advanced, more comfortable, and much more expensive. For some buyers, that is fine. For the middle-class worker who needs a truck as a tool, though, the math is getting harder every year.

Sellers’ warning is that the truck market may now be running on the same dangerous idea that helped fuel past financial trouble: as long as the payment can be stretched far enough, the sale can be made.

The question is how long that can last before the buyers run out.