Housing analyst Nicholas Gerli of Reventure Consulting recently walked viewers through a luxury home community near Sarasota, Florida, and what he found was eerie. Streets lined with brand-new mansions priced between $1.2 and $1.5 million sat completely empty. No contractors. No families. No buzz of life. “It’s kind of a ghost town,” Gerli said in his video report. These luxury neighborhoods, once seen as high-end escapes, now look more like abandoned film sets.
The Toll Brothers Overbuild
The community Gerli toured is being developed by Toll Brothers, the largest luxury homebuilder in the U.S. Yet despite a steep drop in demand, the company continues to build. Gerli revealed that Toll Brothers saw a 15% decline in contract signings year-over-year, ending in April 2025. Even so, construction continues, and so do the listings – most labeled “quick move-in.” According to Gerli, that’s a red flag. It signals that the builder is sitting on excess inventory and is desperate to sell homes fast.
Buyers Are Vanishing
One of the most revealing stats Gerli shared was that vacation homebuyer demand has dropped 60–70% since the pandemic peak. Florida, long a magnet for out-of-state buyers from places like New York and California, is now seeing a sharp reversal. That demand drop is hitting luxury communities the hardest. “People just aren’t buying like they used to,” Gerli said. Whether it’s higher interest rates, uncertainty about the economy, or the price tag itself, $1.5 million houses aren’t moving.
Sarasota and Manatee Prices Falling Fast
According to Gerli, data from Zillow’s Home Value Index already shows a 6–8% year-over-year drop in places like Sarasota and Manatee Counties. And that’s just the beginning. These price drops may seem small at first glance, but as Gerli explained, “Housing downturns typically take multiple years to play out.” If the market continues to decline at this rate, homeowners could be looking at 15–20% losses within just a few years.
The Land Isn’t Worth Much
One point Gerli emphasized is that in many of these new-build neighborhoods, the land itself holds little value. The homes are built in areas far from urban centers, where land can go for as little as $30,000 or $40,000. That means almost the entire purchase price, sometimes over $1.5 million, goes toward the house itself. Builders like Toll Brothers can rake in high profit margins, even when demand drops. Gerli noted that Toll Brothers reported a 26% profit margin, compared to Lennar’s 18%, showing how lucrative luxury homes can be for developers, but not necessarily for buyers.
Rising Inventory, Falling Confidence
In zip code 34211 (Lakewood Ranch North), Gerli found nearly 500 homes for resale, where the long-term average is just 200. That’s a staggering 120% increase in supply. As a result, prices are continuing to slide. Builders like Toll Brothers are reacting by quietly slashing prices – Gerli cited a $100,000 cut on one listing from $1.35 million to $1.25 million. While the numbers still sound high, these drops are serious indicators of a deeper correction.
Florida Heat, Cold Market
Gerli also shared a personal observation that might sound trivial but actually paints a broader picture – Florida’s brutal summer heat. “If you’ve never experienced Florida in June,” he said, “you just don’t go outside from 10 a.m. to 6 p.m.” He pointed out that lifestyle realities like this, coupled with rising insurance costs and HOA fees, may be turning potential buyers off, especially those not already tied to the state. It’s a detail that’s easy to overlook but matters when you’re asking someone to pay seven figures for a second or third home.
Luxury Isn’t Immune Anymore
There used to be a belief that wealthy buyers were more insulated from downturns, but Gerli said the luxury market is now following the rest of the housing sector into decline. He showed multiple “sold” homes with no residents and questioned whether those sales were even real or if buyers were backing out post-closing. “This is definitely some 2007–2008 stuff,” he warned, referencing The Big Short. The warning signs – empty houses, price cuts, overbuilding – are all back again in 2025.
Gerli’s Advice: Avoid the Ghost Developments
When asked where he’d personally buy, Gerli didn’t hesitate. “Not here,” he said about these sprawling, cookie-cutter luxury builds. He recommends buyers stay away from exurban or rural new-build communities where the land has little intrinsic value and the market is oversupplied. Instead, he suggests looking closer to urban centers, in established neighborhoods with high incomes and strong education levels, like Brentwood in Nashville, Hyde Park in Tampa, or Westchester County in New York.
Florida’s Fall Is Spreading
Gerli made it clear this isn’t just a Florida issue. Housing corrections are now spreading to Georgia, North Carolina, Tennessee, Alabama, and parts of the Mountain West like Colorado and Utah. Even parts of the Pacific Northwest, such as Oregon and Washington, are seeing value declines. The trend is now national, not regional. Builders in all these areas are pushing out homes faster than they can sell them, creating more pressure on prices.
Forecasts Predict More Trouble
Gerli’s Reventure app shows forward-looking forecasts for 30,000 U.S. zip codes. In the zip code he toured, prices are expected to drop another 4.5–5% over the next year. In nearby areas, that figure could be as high as 10%. He warns that if you’re planning to buy in 2025, you should be negotiating hard or possibly waiting it out altogether. “You don’t want to catch a falling knife,” he cautioned.
There’s No Luxury in Losing Money
What’s most fascinating about this whole situation is how the illusion of safety in luxury real estate is unraveling. Gerli’s walk through what should have been a thriving neighborhood shows the danger of relying on past assumptions, like the idea that the wealthy will always keep the market afloat. In reality, these buyers are pulling back, just like everyone else. A $1.5 million house with no neighbors and no resale value isn’t just lonely – it’s risky.
The Rebirth of Caution
This story isn’t just about Florida. It’s about rebuilding buyer skepticism after years of fear of missing out. People are doing their homework again. They’re walking empty streets like Gerli did, counting “quick move-in” signs, checking Zillow for price cuts, and questioning if that HOA fee is worth it. Maybe that’s the silver lining: buyers getting smarter, builders getting checked, and the housing market, finally, being forced to correct itself.
Not Safe from the Storm
Nicholas Gerli’s reporting from the ground in Florida paints a clear picture – the luxury housing market is not safe from the storm. High inventory, fading demand, falling prices, and overzealous builders are converging in a way that feels all too familiar. Whether you’re a first-time buyer, an investor, or someone just trying to make sense of it all, Gerli’s message is simple: don’t let the granite countertops fool you – the foundation might already be cracking.
Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.