Steve Rattner, economic analyst for MSNBC’s Morning Joe, painted a stark picture for the Class of 2025. As graduation caps fly through the air, reality is hitting hard: young adults are walking straight into one of the toughest job markets in over a decade. According to the Labor Department, the unemployment rate for new job seekers is nearing 7% – the highest level outside the pandemic years. That number doesn’t just represent stats. It represents fear, frustration, and uncertainty for young adults hoping to start their careers.
High School Graduates Have It Even Worse
Rattner highlighted an even more troubling statistic: recent high school grads are facing an average unemployment rate of nearly 15%. That’s not just bad – it’s close to double the rate for college graduates. Without a degree, these young workers are struggling to get any kind of footing in the job market. “The environment is harsher for those without degrees,” Rattner noted. And the data shows it’s not just a temporary bump. This trend has been stretching across the past year.
The Gap Between Expectations and Reality
Rattner compared the current unemployment numbers for college grads (5.8%) to the national average (4.2%). He said that this growing gap marks a big shift from past years, when new graduates typically tracked right alongside overall unemployment trends. That gap is new – and it’s widening. Even those who went through college, built resumes, and did all the “right” things are now feeling the sting of rejection.
The “Rejection Generation” Is Here
On Morning Joe, host Katherine Kay shared a personal story that added weight to Rattner’s charts. Her own son, a recent graduate in marine engineering, has applied to hundreds of jobs without success. His friends are in the same boat. “They’re being called the ‘Rejection Generation,’” she said. Rattner agreed, saying he had heard many stories like that – and when he dug into the data, it backed them up. The rejection isn’t imagined. It’s measurable.
AI and Tariffs Add to the Pressure
So why is the job market this bad? Rattner pointed to several contributing factors. First, there’s economic uncertainty across the board. Companies are hesitant to hire because of unstable conditions – tariffs, market unpredictability, and policy swings. Second, artificial intelligence may already be having an impact. Rattner noted that the unemployment rate for computer programmers has risen to 6.1%, higher than average. It’s ironic – tech jobs used to be seen as a safe bet, but even they’re not immune anymore.
Americans Say Jobs Aren’t Plentiful
Rattner’s charts also revealed a significant shift in public perception. The percentage of Americans who believe jobs are “plentiful” has dropped sharply, from nearly 60% before the pandemic to just 29% now. Meanwhile, those saying jobs are “hard to get” has crept up to 18%. These aren’t just numbers. They reflect a real shift in national mood – one that shows a public more worried about job security than they’ve been in years.
Manufacturing Isn’t the Easy Answer
Interestingly, Rattner pointed out that there are currently over 400,000 unfilled manufacturing jobs in the U.S. So why are people still unemployed? It comes down to preferences. Many young workers simply don’t want to take factory jobs, which are often seen as repetitive, physically demanding, and low-paying. That adds another wrinkle to the conversation about “bringing back manufacturing.” As Rattner wisely said, “How many manufacturing jobs do we really want to create if people don’t want them?”
Early Warning Signs in the Data
Rattner emphasized that much of the economic data we hear – GDP numbers, employment reports – is backward-looking. But there’s one early indicator economists rely on: weekly unemployment insurance claims. Recently, the four-week average of these new claims has ticked up noticeably. It’s now back to early 2023 levels. While Rattner cautioned against overreacting, he called it a signal economists watch closely when trying to forecast downturns.
Fewer People Believe They Can Get a Job
Perhaps the most alarming stat Rattner shared was this: only 51% of Americans think they could find a new job within three months if they lost their current one. That’s the lowest level since 2014, not counting the pandemic. It shows that workers across the board, not just graduates, are feeling shaky. This lack of confidence, Rattner warned, can have a self-fulfilling effect: when people don’t believe they can find work, they spend less, apply less, and grow even more discouraged.
GDP and Fed Expectations Are Headed Down
The Federal Reserve recently lowered its GDP growth forecast from 1.7% to 1.4%, matching a similar cut by the World Bank. That’s a huge step down from the 2.8% growth the U.S. saw in 2024. As Rattner pointed out, “That means we’re set to grow at exactly half the pace we did last year.” Not exactly a promising backdrop for new job seekers. The Fed also raised its unemployment projections, now expecting it to hit 4.5% by the end of the year, up from earlier estimates.
Inflation Is Staying Sticky
Meanwhile, inflation hasn’t cooled as fast as policymakers hoped. The Fed’s preferred measure now shows inflation rising from 2.7% to 3%. That higher inflation means the Fed is likely to keep interest rates elevated, despite earlier hopes for cuts. According to Rattner, “When you’re moving toward slower growth, more unemployment, and somewhat higher interest rates – that is not the direction you want to be moving in.” It’s a slow crawl toward stagflation, even if no one wants to use the word just yet.
This Isn’t Just a “Blip”
What’s happening right now isn’t just a seasonal downturn or post-graduation slump. It’s a deepening trend, and it’s hitting new grads hard. What makes it more frustrating is that many of these students were promised a booming recovery after COVID. They were told that college degrees would protect them. Now they’re facing a harsh truth: the economy they’re entering doesn’t have room for them – not yet, anyway. And as Steve Rattner’s data shows, that’s not a theory. That’s reality.
The System Needs a Rethink
Rattner’s segment raises a bigger question: if the job market isn’t welcoming new grads, and young workers don’t want available manufacturing jobs, what exactly are we preparing them for? This mismatch between education, skills, and real-world opportunities is becoming more obvious – and more painful. We can’t keep telling students to go to college for a better future if that future has no open door waiting. The system needs to adapt because the Class of 2025 is already falling behind.
Mark grew up in the heart of Texas, where tornadoes and extreme weather were a part of life. His early experiences sparked a fascination with emergency preparedness and homesteading. A father of three, Mark is dedicated to teaching families how to be self-sufficient, with a focus on food storage, DIY projects, and energy independence. His writing empowers everyday people to take small steps toward greater self-reliance without feeling overwhelmed.